AMATA – 3Q26F: Earnings weaken YoY and QoQ

AMATA’s 3Q26 net profit is expected to soften to Bt906mn (-20.4% YoY, -42.8% QoQ) on lower land transfers. Land sales may slow in the near term as data center clients await legal clarity. Despite short-term negative sentiment, we maintain our 2026 forecast, with softer 4Q26 earnings YoY and QoQ, as our land sales assumption remains conservative relative to the company’s target. We removed AMATA from our High Conviction list after a 20% gain due to delayed sales and weak 2H26 results but maintain an Outperform rating with a mid-2027 TP of Bt44 (based on average over 11X PE), pending regulatory clarity.

Soft land sales on delayed contract signings. AMATA reported 3Q26 total land sales of 228 rai (-6% YoY, -16% QoQ), with no land sales recorded from Amata City Chonburi and Smart City—which mainly target Data Center clients—as new prospective clients await legal clarity. Land sales in 3Q26 came from Rayong at 167 rai (including ~15 rai for an existing Data Center expansion) and Vietnam at 61 rai, driven by client bases in electronics components, consumer goods, and automotive parts. Consequently, 9M26 land sales stood at 605 rai (-41% YoY), accounting for just 22% of its full-year target of 2,800 rai. The 9M26 land sales comprised 527 rai in Thailand and 78 rai in Vietnam. Given the ~800-900 rai currently under negotiation in Thailand, we expect AMATA to miss its full-year land sales target due to delayed contract signings, particularly in the Data Center segment. However, if the new legislation is finalized by mid-November, we expect some contracts to be signed within this year. The 2026 land sales target for Thailand is set at 1,650 rai, whereas sales in Vietnam—despite improving sales momentum—are projected at ~250 rai in 2026 against its 500-rai target. Meanwhile, negotiations for 500-600 rai at its new industrial estate in Lao PDR are on track with target, but still awaiting contract execution, not all of which will occur within this year.

Weak 3Q26 net profit expected YoY and QoQ. We expect AMATA’s 3Q26 net profit at Bt906mn (-20.4% YoY, -42.8% QoQ) with total revenue expected at Bt3.5bn (-17.3% YoY, -2.4% QoQ). Real estate transfers are expected to account for ~60% of total revenue, with total land transfers expected at 258 rai (-62% YoY, -10% QoQ), comprising ~76% from Thailand and 24% from Vietnam. In 3Q26, average transfer price per rai is expected to increase by 6% YoY, while revenue from other businesses is expected to stay flat QoQ. Gross margin is projected at 45.2% (up from 42.3% in 2Q25 but softening from its peak of 51.4% in 2Q26) due to lower transfers from Smart City. Furthermore, no extra gain on investment divestment in Vietnam is expected to be recorded in this quarter, as it will likely be delayed to 2027.

Maintain full-year forecast: AMATA currently has an order backlog of Bt16.4bn, entirely from Thailand. Meanwhile, its previous backlog in Vietnam of ~Bt1.5bn will be reclassified as land assets held for sale in 2027. We maintain our 2026 forecasts, projecting strong revenue growth of 17% YoY to Bt16.7bn and net profit of Bt4.7bn (+50% YoY, reaching a new record high). We expect 4Q26 performance to soften slightly both YoY and QoQ.

Key risk: Volatility from tax policy shifts. Global geopolitical instability may delay investment. A key issue to monitor is energy management within both the industrial estate areas and the utilities business.