We expect a sharp increase in 2H26F cash collection, supported by four medium-sized deals and potential upside from two large transactions. BAM is establishing three additional JVAMCs with commercial banks. In the medium term, BAM targets sustainable earnings of Bt1.8-2bn per year, which appears challenging in our view. We maintain our 2026F earnings forecast of Bt1.6bn (-11%), expecting 2H26F earnings to surge 140% HoH and 281% YoY. We maintain a Neutral rating with an unchanged mid-2027F TP of Bt7 (based on DDM), supported by a solid 7% dividend yield.
Research
BAM – Expect a big jump in 2H26F cash collection
BAMSET
Expect a big jump in 2H26F cash collection. BAM expected cash collection to be around Bt5-6bn each in 3Q26 and 4Q26 (vs. Bt3bn in 1Q26 and Bt3.5bn in 2Q26), supported by four medium-sized deals totally worth around Bt1.2bn (Bt400mn from 2 NPL deals and Bt800mn from 2 NPA deals). There is a delay in cash collection of Bt500mn from 2Q26 to 3Q26. BAM expects to achieve cash collection of at least Bt16.5bn in 2026 vs. its 2026 target of Bt17.9bn. We forecast 2026F cash collection to be Bt16.5bn, down 8% from an unusually high base of Bt17.9bn in 2025. There is upside from two large deals – the Soneva Kiri Resort Koh Kood and the Indra Regent Hotel Pratunam.
New JVAMCs in the pipeline. BAM is in the process of establishing three additional joint venture AMCs (JVAMCs) with commercial banks. It expects to finalize two deals in December 2026 and another in 1H27. Currently, BAM has two JVAMCs: 1) Ari AMC (a JV with Government Savings Bank), which focuses on unsecured loans, and 2) Arun AMC (a JV with KBANK), which focuses on secured loans. In 1H26, BAM recognized earnings of Bt72mn from these two entities via the 50% equity method from their combined net profit of Bt143mn (Bt86mn from Ari AMC and Bt57mn from Arun AMC). Over the medium term, BAM targets an earnings contribution of around Bt100mn per year from each JVAMC.
Challenging earnings sustainability. BAM aims to shift its business model away from relying on big-ticket transactions. It has a medium-term target to achieve sustainable earnings of Bt1.8-2bn per year, comprising 1) Bt350-400mn per quarter in recurring net profit (excluding big-ticket deals) vs. Bt250mn per quarter in 1H26, 2) Bt400-500mn earnings contribution from 4-5 JVAMCs, and 3) Bt200mn from other sources (partnership activities and cost savings). In our view, achieving this ambitious target will be quite challenging. We maintain our 2026F earnings forecast of Bt1.6bn (-11%), expecting 2H26 earnings to surge 140% HoH and 281% YoY.
Good dividend yield. We expect 2026F DPS to be Bt0.45 (a 90% payout ratio) vs. Bt0.50 in 2025 (an 89% payout ratio), offering a solid dividend yield of 7%. The company plans to start paying an interim dividend in 2027.
Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged TP. We maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged mid-2027F TP of Bt7 (based on DDM) for a solid dividend yield, despite a challenge in sustaining earnings amidst unfavorable economic environment.
Key risks: 1) Cash collection risk from an economic slowdown and rising inflationary pressure, 2) a slowdown in property market demand and 3) rising competition from new players.