BDMS – 3Q26F: Earnings uptrend to resume

3Q26F: YoY earnings uptrend to resume. We expect BDMS to report a 3Q26 core profit of Bt4.7bn, up 8% YoY and 47% QoQ. Earnings growth is expected to resume in 3Q26 after consecutive YoY contractions since 4Q25, driven by rising revenue from pent-up demand following treatment deferrals by both Thai and international patients in 2Q26, seasonal disease-related demand, and a widening EBITDA margin. BDMS is scheduled to release its 3Q26 results on November 16, 2026.

Rising revenue, improving EBITDA margin. We estimate BDMS’ revenue at Bt29bn in 3Q26, up 6% YoY and 12% QoQ, accelerating from 1% YoY growth in 2Q26. Momentum is expected to remain strong in July and August before flooding in Bangkok temporarily disrupted patient traffic in late September, although there was no property damage. By nationality, we estimate revenue from Thai patients, accounting for 74% of total revenue, at Bt21.5bn, up 6% YoY and 13% QoQ. Growth is supported by pent-up demand deferred from 2Q26 due to geopolitical and economic concerns, as well as seasonal respiratory illnesses. We estimate revenue from international patients, accounting for 26% of total revenue, at Bt7.6bn, up 7% YoY and 10% QoQ. BDMS continues to see strong demand from key markets including Bangladesh, Myanmar, and the US, while demand from the Middle East and Cambodia is improving, with lower YoY contractions. Supported by accelerating revenue growth, we expect EBITDA margin to widen to 26.1% in 3Q26 from 25.3% in 3Q25 and 22.1% in 2Q26. We forecast tax expense at Bt1.2bn, up 24% YoY and 46% QoQ, implying an effective tax rate of 20% in 3Q26 versus 18% in 3Q25, when BDMS benefited from Board of Investment tax privileges related to its digital transformation and energy-saving initiatives.

Earnings uptrend to continue in 4Q26. Our 3Q26 preview suggests that 9M26 core earnings will account for 71% of our full-year 2026 forecast and 73% of the consensus estimate. While we see limited downside risk to our 2026 forecast, we maintain our view that BDMS’ YoY earnings growth will continue in 4Q26, although earnings are expected to decline QoQ due to seasonality. The YoY improvement should be driven by revenue growth and a low earnings base in 4Q25, when EBITDA margin was weak and operations were temporarily affected by flood-related property damage in southern Thailand. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and mid-2027 DCF TP of Bt25, based on a WACC of 7.3% and a long-term growth rate of 2.5%.

Risks. Global economic slowdown and geopolitical risk may cause clients to delay elective medical care and make it inconvenient for international patients to come to Thailand for treatment. We see ESG risk primarily in patient safety (social factor), although BDMS has implemented a variety of quality assurance systems to ensure continuous and high-quality patient care.