4Q24F earnings growth both YoY and QoQ. By our estimates, CBG’s domestic energy drink market share reached 26% in 4Q24 from 25.8% at end-3Q24, ending 2024 with solid growth from 23.4% at end-2023. Overseas sales grew 10% QoQ, backed by growth in Cambodia and recovery in Myanmar. We thus estimate 4Q24 revenue of Bt5.9bn (+11.8% YoY and +16.6% QoQ), ~13% higher than our earlier forecast. We expect average gross margin of 26.7%, narrowed from 28.1% in 3Q24 from higher aluminum cost carried over from 1H24 against stable costs for electricity and sugar. SG&A will be higher YoY and QoQ from employee benefits. Taken together, we forecast 4Q24F net profit at Bt819mn (+26.2% YoY and +10.6% QoQ).
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CBG - Preview 4Q24: Growth both YoY and QoQ
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Upgrade 2024F by 4% to factor in strong 4Q24F. In view of the stronger sales than expected in 4Q24F, we have raised our 2024 revenue forecast by 3.3% to Bt20.2bn (+11%), a new high. We keep our average gross margin forecast at 27.3%, up from 25.9%, aided by lower raw material costs and economies of scale. Our revised 2024F net profit is Bt2.88bn (+49.6%), up 4% from our previous forecast.
Growth to continue in 2025. In 2025, CBG aims to gain of another 300bps in market share to 29%. It will remain as proactive as it was in 2024 via keeping its flagship product selling price at Bt10/bottle plus price promotions through the MT channel. CBG also targets double-digit revenue growth, but we maintain our 2025F revenue growth at 10% to Bt23bn; we will keep an eye on the movement of domestic energy drink market share to see if there will be any upside to our forecast. Average gross margin is expected to go up to 28% on lower sugar cost and economies of scale. Underwritten by sales volume growth in 2025F, we forecast net profit growth of 13.3% to Bt3.26bn. CBG expects a new plant in Myanmar to start commercial runs in 2Q25 and the new plant in Cambodia remains on schedule with commercial startup expected in early 3Q26.
ESG key risks. Operational risk: CLMV economies and policies must be monitored. Competition in the domestic energy drink market is expected to stay intense. Raw material prices and cost of goods sold (aluminum, sugar, natural gas and electricity) are by nature volatile. ESG Risk: CBG was listed in SET ESG ratings as AA in 2024, moved up from A in 2023.