3Q26F should see a narrower YoY earnings decline, with sector core profit down 29% YoY and 9% QoQ (vs. -48% YoY in 1H26); TU leads YoY growth while BTG delivers the strongest QoQ recovery. Thai livestock prices improved, while overseas swine prices diverged; feed costs stayed manageable despite higher soybean meal prices. The impact of higher skipjack tuna prices should be limited by TU’s inventory coverage and selling-price adjustments. We expect sector earnings to return to YoY growth in 4Q26F, led by recovering livestock margins as seasonal demand and controlled supply support prices, alongside continued aquatic sales growth. TU and BTG are our top picks.
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Food – 3Q26F decline easing, recovery ahead
3Q26F: Earnings decline moderates from 1H26. We expect 3Q26F sector core earnings to decline 29% YoY and 9% QoQ, with the YoY contraction moderating from 1H26 (-48% YoY). TU should lead YoY growth, with core profit at Bt1.4bn (+16% YoY, +2% QoQ), driven by stronger ambient and pet food sales and gross margin expansion on a better product mix and low-cost tuna inventory. BTG should deliver the strongest QoQ recovery, with core profit at Bt1.2bn, broadly flat YoY but up 66% QoQ, supported by recovering livestock prices and normalized broiler farm operations off its 2Q26 low base. CPF’s core profit is expected at Bt3.4bn (-44% YoY, -26% QoQ), mainly on lower equity income from CTI amid weak China swine prices, while GFPT’s core profit is expected at Bt582mn (-18% YoY, flat QoQ), pressured by weaker broiler export sales and margins.
Livestock: Thai prices recover; overseas trends mixed. In 3Q26, Thai swine prices averaged Bt69/kg (+1% YoY, +8% QoQ), above the gross-profit breakeven of Bt60/kg for large integrated producers, while Thai broiler prices averaged Bt44/kg (+11% YoY, +14% QoQ), above the breakeven of Bt39/kg. The improvement reflected tighter supply following breeder-stock controls and disease-related disruptions, including ASF/PRRS in swine and Newcastle disease in broilers, alongside improving domestic consumption. Flooding from late September and the Vegetarian Festival on October 10-18 may temporarily affect demand and industry supply, but we view these as short-term factors. In Vietnam, swine prices averaged VND59,624/kg in 3Q26 (+1% YoY, -9% QoQ), remaining above the VND45,000/kg breakeven. The QoQ decline reflected flooding, accelerated supply liquidation amid ASF outbreaks, and tighter government controls on beta-agonist use. China swine prices averaged CNY11/kg (-22% YoY, +12% QoQ), below the CNY13-13.5/kg breakeven, remaining weak YoY as supply continued to outpace demand.
Feed costs: Manageable despite higher soybean meal prices. In 3Q26, domestic corn prices averaged Bt11/kg in 3Q26 (+5% YoY, -9% QoQ), easing QoQ as Thailand entered the harvest season, while US corn imports starting in October should improve sourcing flexibility and help keep corn costs under control. Imported soybean meal prices averaged Bt17/kg (+20% YoY, +6% QoQ), reflecting higher freight and oil costs, together with a weaker THB. With operators having secured soybean meal supply for 4-6 months and maintaining 2-3 months of corn inventories, we expect the margin impact to remain manageable, particularly if livestock prices continue to improve.
Aquatic: Higher tuna prices remain manageable. Skipjack tuna prices averaged US$2,075/ton in 3Q26 (+34% YoY, +17% QoQ), rising to a 2026 high of US$2,275/ton in September, driven by higher oil prices, seasonally lower catches following the FAD closure in the Western Pacific Ocean, and stronger demand during Eastern Pacific fishing closures. Despite higher prices, the impact should remain manageable given TU’s five months of inventory coverage and selling-price adjustments. TU expects prices to ease to US$1,900-2,100/ton in 4Q26 after the FAD closure ends.
4Q26F: Earnings recovery expected. We expect sector earnings to return to YoY growth in 4Q26F, led by improving livestock margins and continued aquatic sales growth. Thai swine prices should continue recovering on controlled supply, while broiler prices should remain elevated and feed costs manageable. Vietnam swine prices should gradually recover in mid-to-late 4Q26 as supply liquidation slows and seasonal demand improves, while China’s recovery should lag, with prices relatively stable QoQ before improving in 2027 as supply management progresses. Aquatic earnings should remain resilient on healthy organic sales growth and support from a weaker baht.
Our picks are TU and BTG, with TU leading 3Q26F YoY earnings growth and benefiting from a weaker baht, while BTG delivers the strongest QoQ earnings recovery in 3Q26F, with further earnings support from recovering Thai livestock prices in 4Q26F.
Key risks. Weak prices from fragile purchasing power and more supply, high feed costs and a strong THB. Key ESG risks are GHG emissions, waste & water management (E), customer welfare, product quality, health & safety policies (S).