Better traffic in Nov, but no catalyst
We take a neutral view on the sector, which we see as having no catalyst for the next three months. We believe it is still too early to assess the magnitude of the benefit from the government’s Bt20 fare since it depends on how this will be carried out, via a concession buyback or direct subsidy. In terms of near-term share price impact, the most positive would be a concession buyback. BEM is our top pick with an SOTP-based TP of Bt10.5/sh (Bt8.2 for core business, Bt1.5 for the Orange Line and Bt0.8 for investments). We rate BTS as NEUTRAL with an SOTP-based TP of Bt5.3/sh (Bt2.6 for core business and Bt2.7 for investments). BTS may have positive news on the BMA’s debt repayment, but this should already be in the price and also has little impact on our TP. We already assume BMA will repay BTS. We are NEUTRAL on BTSGIF with a DDM-based TP of Bt3.9/sh (5.9% WACC and no terminal value).
Expressway traffic – Improving MoM, but flat YoY. Expressway traffic grew 2.9% MoM, but was flat YoY at 1.1mn trips/day in November. The MoM growth was driven by more activities taking place in the area. As a rule, traffic in November is higher than in October. The lack of growth YoY reflected a partial closure of the expressway network. Average traffic in 11M24 was 1.1mn trips/day, flat YoY. This is in line with our full-year forecast of no growth in 2024F.
MRT (Blue Line) – Growing MoM and YoY. Average ridership was 463k trips/day, up 4.1% MoM and 7.2% YoY. Behind the MoM growth was the opening of ONE Bangkok while the YoY growth reflects ongoing recovery. Average ridership in 11M24 was 426.6k trips/day, up 9.7% YoY vs our forecast of 10%, still on track.
BTS (core Green Line) – Following the trend. Average ridership was 593.3k trips/day, up 6.3% MoM and 6.6% YoY, bringing 8MFY25 (Apr–Nov 2024) trips to 555.3k (+6.5% YoY) against our FY2025F assumption of 6.5%, on track to meet our forecast. 11M24 average ridership is 555.7k trips/day, up 6.8% YoY.
Yellow Line – Continues getting better. Average ridership was 43.6k trips/day, up 3.9% MoM and 20.5% YoY. This brings 11M24 average ridership to 36.9k trips/day and its 8MFY25 to 37.5k trips against our assumption of 40k in FY2025F, which we view as still on track. Note that 50% of its ridership feeds to MRT (Blue Line) at Lat Phrao station. Ridership needs to reach 180k trips/day to reach breakeven at the net profit level.
Pink Line – Ridership up MoM. Average ridership was 60k trips/day, up 6.8% MoM. There is no YoY data since it only opened in Jan 2024 and the data we have begins in Mar 2024. Average Mar-Nov ridership was 54.2k trips/day and 55.1k trips in its 8MFY25 against our FY2025 assumption of 60k, on track to meet our full-year forecast. Note that the Pink Line has no direct connection with MRT (Blue Line) or BTS (core Green Line). Ridership needs to reach 180k trips/day to reach breakeven point at the net profit level.
Key ESG risk for the sector. Service reliability (S) is the key ESG risk for the sector because it would negatively impact ridership numbers.
