OSP's 3Q26 net profit is projected to reach Bt881mn (up 26% YoY but dropped 20% QoQ) as strong functional drink and regional sales offset seasonal domestic softness and flood-related logistics disruptions. Margin compression from higher raw material costs will be partially mitigated by strict SG&A management and a ~Bt75mn asset sale gain. Consequently, we upgrade our 2026 full-year net profit forecast by 3% to Bt3.86bn (+5.3% YoY), reflecting enhanced cost efficiencies despite lowering top-line estimates. We maintain our Neutral rating with mid-2027TP of Bt21.00/share.
Research
OSP – 3Q26F: Earnings up YoY but fall QoQ
Soft domestic beverage demand in 3Q26 due to seasonality and floods. In 3Q26, the domestic energy drink market value is expected to grow by ~3-4% YoY, with growth across both MT and TT channels. On a QoQ basis, market value is expected to soften due to seasonality and flooding during the final week of the quarter, which hampered logistics. Demand is expected to recover during the final two months of the quarter after flood conditions in Bangkok and upcountry areas subside. Meanwhile, the overseas market overall is set to grow both YoY and QoQ, though restrictions on import licenses remain in force in Myanmar. In the personal care market, overall market value is projected to expand both YoY and QoQ.
3Q26 net profit expected to grow 26% YoY but fall 20% QoQ. We project OSP's 3Q26 net profit at Bt881mn, with total revenue estimated at Bt5.7bn (+2.7% YoY, -5.9% QoQ). Domestic energy drink sales are expected to stay flat YoY, whereas functional drink sales should deliver stronger performance both YoY and QoQ. Total overseas sales are expected to be flat YoY; on a new accounting basis, sales from Myanmar will post a double-digit decline alongside ongoing pressure from import licenses, whereas sales from other countries are set to grow double-digit YoY, led by Lao PDR. Personal care sales are expected to grow double-digit YoY and single-digit QoQ. Gross margin is projected at 40.2%, improving from 38.5% in 3Q25 but declining from 42.8% in 2Q26 due to two factors: a lower proportion of high-margin overseas revenue and higher raw material and production costs, which will start taking effect from 3Q26 onwards. Meanwhile, SG&A expenses are expected to be well controlled. In addition, OSP will record an extra gain of ~Bt75mn from the sale of equipment and current assets on land prepared for CPAXT's project.
2026 net profit forecast raised by 3%. We raise our 2026 net profit forecast by 3% to Bt3.86bn (+5.3% YoY), reflecting three key factors: 1) a 2% cut in revenue to Bt24.7bn (-3.3% YoY) due to weaker-than-expected overseas sales; 2) an adjustment in the SG&A-to-sales ratio to 24% (from 25.4%) following better-than-expected expenses control; and 3) the inclusion of the extra gain in 3Q26. Looking ahead to 4Q26, domestic sales are expected to recover late in the quarter, and overseas sales should improve both YoY and QoQ, though gross margin is expected to weaken QoQ due to higher natural gas costs.
Key risks. Cannibalization by its own products, volatile prices for major cost items, low domestic consumption, CLMV economies and policy changes. ESG risk: product quality management (S) and customer welfare (S).