PR9 – 3Q26F: Strong quarter

We estimate PR9 to report a 3Q26 core profit of Bt230mn, up 3% YoY and 25% QoQ. Key earnings drivers are revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion. The relatively modest YoY growth in core earnings is mainly due to a normalization of the tax rate from the low base in 3Q25. We believe pre-tax profit, which is projected to rise 10% YoY and 26% QoQ, better reflects PR9’s improving operating performance. We expect earnings momentum to remain strong in 4Q26 and maintain our positive outlook. PR9 remains our top healthcare pick. OUTPERFORM rating with a mid-2027 TP of Bt23.

3Q26 preview: Core profit to grow YoY and QoQ. We estimate PR9 will report a 3Q26 core profit of Bt230mn, up 3% YoY and 25% QoQ. Key earnings drivers are revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion. The modest YoY growth in core earnings is expected to result from the normalization of the tax rate from the low base in 3Q25. We believe pre-tax profit, which is projected to increase 10% YoY and 26% QoQ, better reflects PR9’s improving operating performance. The results are scheduled for release on November 11, 2026.

Growing revenue, with Thai patient service as a key growth driver. We estimate PR9’s revenue at Bt1.4bn, up 6% YoY and 10% QoQ, accelerating from 3% YoY growth in 2Q26. The revenue mix in this quarter differs from previous quarters, as Thai patient revenue is expected to become the key growth driver at Bt1.1bn, up 7% YoY and 13% QoQ. Growth is supported by pent-up demand that was delayed in 2Q26 due to concerns over the war and economic impact, collaboration with private health insurance companies, and seasonal respiratory illnesses. We expect international patient revenue of Bt389mn, up 2% YoY and 3% QoQ. We believe growth will continue in key markets, including the Middle East and Myanmar, although the more normalized growth rate reflects a high revenue base following record quarterly revenue from Myanmar patients in 2Q26.

Widening EBITDA margin. Normalizing tax expense. We expect the positive trend of EBITDA margin expansion, driven by cost control, lower selling and marketing expenses, and rising revenue, to continue from 2Q26. We forecast EBITDA margin at 25.7% in 3Q26, up from 24.3% in 3Q25 and 23.8% in 2Q26. We estimate the effective tax rate will normalize to 20% in 3Q26, compared with 18% in 3Q25, when PR9 benefited from investment promotion measures related to community and social development.

Better earnings outlook. Our 3Q26 preview implies that 9M26 core earnings will account for 74% of our full-year 2026 forecast. Given our expectation of continued strength in 4Q26, with core earnings expected to grow YoY despite a seasonal QoQ decline, supported by rising healthcare demand and further EBITDA margin expansion, we see some upside risk to our earnings forecast. We remain positive on PR9, underpinned by growth opportunities from new international patient markets, a rising contribution from high-complexity medical services, and improving profitability. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating with a mid-2027 DCF TP of Bt23, based on a WACC of 7.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Risks. Key risks include a global economic slowdown, geopolitical uncertainties, revenue concentration risk and intense competition. We see ESG risks including water and energy management (environmental issues), given the presence of data centers near the hospital, and patient safety (social issues), although PR9 has adopted a variety of quality assurance systems to ensure continuous patient care.