3Q26 presales for the seven covered companies fell 13% YoY but recovered 2% QoQ to Bt37bn, partially affected by flooding; only AP and LH had presales growth both YoY and QoQ. 9M26 presales reached Bt110bn (-4% YoY), accounting for 72% of our full-year target (Bt153bn, flat YoY), with demand set to rebound in 4Q26 as floods ease. Meanwhile, 2H26 net profit should recover to Bt11.3bn (+22% YoY) on condo backlog transfers and extra gains, supporting 9% net profit growth in 2027. Top picks remain AP, SIRI, and SPALI.
Research
Residential Property – 3Q26: Presales recovered QoQ
3Q26 presales dropped 13% YoY but recovered 2% QoQ… led by AP: Aggregate presales for the seven residential property developers under our coverage are expected to reach Bt37bn (-13% YoY, +2% QoQ). Presales and marketing activities during the quarter were negatively impacted by flooding events in the final week of the quarter, causing presales for certain developers to fall slightly short of potential. AP and LH were the only two companies to deliver growth both YoY and QoQ, with AP driven by numerous new launches worth Bt20bn and LH supported by an initial recovery in low-rise presales. In terms of product mix, low-rise residential accounted for 69% of the total value (-2% YoY, +8% QoQ), while condominiums accounted for 31% (-31% YoY, -8% QoQ) due to a high base effect and a lack of major new project launches.
Maintain 2026 presales forecast at flat YoY: Total presales for 9M26 came in at Bt110bn (-4% YoY), accounting for 72% of our full-year sector presales forecast of Bt153bn (flat YoY). We expect residential demand and purchasing decisions to become clearer in 4Q26 as flooding conditions ease, alongside rising demand for ready-to-move-in condominiums.
3Q26 new launches down 13% YoY but up 24% QoQ: In 3Q26, combined new launches across the seven companies reached Bt48.4bn (-13% YoY, +24% QoQ), comprising 78% low-rise residential projects and 22% condominiums. AP recorded the highest launch value at Bt19bn, followed by SIRI at Bt17bn. Consequently, total new launches for 9M26 amounted to Bt104bn (-11% YoY). For the full year, we expect total new launches across all seven companies to reach Bt155bn (-9% YoY), approximately 5% below corporate targets. This deceleration reflects deliberate supply management discipline rather than market distress.
2H26 recovers YoY; 2027 net profit +9%. We estimate 2H26 net profit of Bt11.3bn (+22% YoY, +38% HoH), led by LH and AP. Revenue should rise 6% YoY on condo backlog and ready-built low-rise transfers, plus extra gains at LH and SIRI, while gross margin (29.1%) stays below 2H25’s 29.9% on continued discounting.
AP, SIRI, and SPALI remain our sector top picks. AP offers the strongest backlog driving continuous growth, SIRI benefits from substantial 4Q26 extra gains and target-on-track presales, and SPALI is backed by Australian real estate. Meanwhile, LH should see strong near-term 4Q26 earnings from Wan Vela Na Chaophraya transfers and REIT asset sales.
Key risks: presales miss; no relief after Jun-27; loan rejections; cost inflation; secondhand supply; launch delays; weaker foreign demand. Key ESG risks are GHG emissions, waste & water management, EIA assessment (E), product quality management, and health & safety policies (S).