4Q24: Earnings beat all estimates
SPALI reported 4Q24 net profit of Bt1.98bn (-1.5% YoY but flat QoQ), coming in 10% above INVX and 48% above consensus from higher other income. This brought 2024 total revenue to Bt31.2bn (+0.1% YoY) with net profit of Bt6.19bn (+3.3%). In 2025, 24% of our Bt30.8bn revenue forecast (-1.2%) is secured by backlog with support from good growth in contribution from the JV, fueling net profit growth of 2% to Bt6.3bn. We stay Neutral with a 2025 TP of Bt20.0 on PE of 6.2X (-0.25 S.D., 18 years). A good DPS has been announced at Bt0.85, yield of 5.3%, bringing total 2024 yield to 9.1%.
4Q24 earnings 10% above us and 48% above consensus on other income. SPALI reported 4Q24 net profit of Bt1.98bn (-1.5% YoY but flat QoQ), 10% above us and 48% above consensus from higher other income. Revenue was Bt8.8bn (-12.6% YoY and -10.2% QoQ), with 73% from low-rise and 27% from condos. Average gross margin was 37.8%, up from 34.9% in 4Q24 but down from 39.6% in 3Q24 from product mix. SG&A was 13.5% of revenue from higher selling agent fees. The Australian JV contributed Bt117mn (up 136.5% YoY and 197.5% QoQ), well above our forecast of Bt100mn. Other income related to management fees was Bt356mn (+110% YoY and 139% QoQ) vs. our forecast of Bt102mn, pulling net profit 10% above our forecast. In 2024, total revenue was Bt31.2bn (+0.1% YoY), with a higher gross margin and contribution from the JV but a drag from higher SG&A, bringing net profit to Bt6.19bn (+3.3%), close to our forecast of Bt6.0bn.
Maintain 2025. Of current backlog of Bt11.5bn (50% low-rise and 50% condos), 65% will be booked as revenue in 2025 and the remaining 35% in 2026-2028. We thus maintain our 2025 revenue forecast of Bt30.8bn (-1.2%) with 24% secured by backlog; we forecast net profit at Bt6.3bn (+2%), backed by strong growth at the JV, whose contribution will surge 74% to Bt684mn, underwritten by 24 Australian residential projects in 2025.
Risks and concerns. Inventory management: since 2024 was SPALI’s highest year ever for launches in terms of value at Bt52.3bn, unsold units and inventory management in 2025 will be key to earnings and cash flow.
ESG key risk. SPALI was downgraded from SET ESG ratings in 2024 to A level from AA in 2023. Although SPALI obtains EIAs for residential projects, which helps lower environmental risks, lawsuits have been filed against some condos, which we see as ESG risks for environmental and social elements as they affect surrounding neighborhoods and governance. SPALI aims to reduce greenhouse gas 40% by 2030.
