SPALI’s growth is anchored by its Australian portfolio (25 projects, AUD1bn capital), where 2026 sales will beat guidance and growth will continue into 2027, when net profit is projected to rise 14.8% YoY to Bt5bn, backed by a 26% contribution from Australia. Near-term 2H26 earnings are backed by Bt6.6bn in backlog transfers—led by two condo completions—and an upgraded Australian profit-sharing forecast of Bt1.2bn (+69% YoY), leading 2H26F earnings to grow both YoY and HoH. We upgraded earnings by 5% and 2% in 2026–2027, respectively. We upgrade our call to Outperform from Neutral with a mid-2027 TP of Bt19/share from Bt16.30, based on a PE of 8x.
Research
SPALI – Supported by Australia’s projects
Australia’s projects…a long-term growth engine. SPALI began investing in Australia in 2014 and doubled its investment footprint in 2023. Currently, SPALI holds 25 projects in Australia across 4 states and 6 cities, with a total project value of approximately Bt200bn and an investment capital of around AUD$1bn. SPALI maintains a 49.9% stake in the joint venture entity (SSRCP HoldCo Pty Ltd). The current structure of all 25 projects comprises direct revenue recognition (4 projects) and profit-sharing models (21 projects), with an average take-up rate of 50%. For 2026, SPALI targets Australian sales at AUD$680mn (approximately Bt15bn), representing a 3% YoY growth. In 1H26, sales already reached 62% of the full-year target; although we project 2H26 sales momentum to soften QoQ due to seasonality, full-year performance is expected to beat guidance. Furthermore, the 2027 outlook points to continued growth, supported by robust residential demand driven by net migration and infrastructure development.
Strong backlog in 2H26. SPALI’s 1H26 presales accounted for 43% of the full-year target of Bt30bn (+14% growth). In 2H26, total new project launches will reach Bt22bn, which will accelerate presales growth. Meanwhile, current backlog stands at Bt15.38bn, with approximately 43% or Bt6.6bn expected to be recognized as revenue in 2H26, and the remainder to be gradually recognized through 2028. In 3Q26, revenue recognition from the backlog will be driven by two newly completed condominium projects: Supalai Parc Ekkamai-Pattanakarn, valued at Bt4.6bn (54% presold), and Supalai Kram Khao Tao, valued at Bt480mn (37% presold).
Earnings upgraded reflects strong Australia performance. We raise our net profit forecast in 2026 by 5% due to higher share gain from Australia which revised up 8% to a new high of Bt1.2bn (+69% YoY) while total revenue at Bt25.1bn (+4.2% YoY), with secured revenue of 69%. In 2H26, performance will be supported by condominium backlog transfers and improved gross margins driven by new condominium backlog. Meanwhile, strong sales in Australia since 2025 have bolstered transfers, pushing profit sharing to a new high in 2Q26. We expect continued recognition of profit sharing in 2H26, In 2027, both revenue and profit sharing from Australia are expected to sustain growth momentum; accordingly, we raise our forecast net profit by 2%, projecting overall net profit to grow 14.8% YoY to Bt5bn, supported by a 26% contribution from Australia.
Selling back treasury shares. SPALI is proceeding its selling back the treasury shares purchased in 2025 from April 29, 2026, to 31 May 2027. The shares represent 3.41% of total paid-up capital, totaling 66.599mn shares. The average buyback price for this portion of treasury stock was Bt14.38/share. As of Sep 21,2026, the remaining unsold treasury shares stood at 51mn shares.
Key risk. Inventory management and competition. 2025 SET ESG rating is AA. lawsuits filed against certain condos (ESG), GHG emission waste management (E).