We expect SPALI's 3Q26 net profit to drop 21.8% YoY and 44.6% QoQ to Bt913mn on revenue of Bt6.1bn (-3.8% YoY, -11.7% QoQ), impacted by flood-disrupted transfers at a new condo and lower Australian profit sharing due to seasonality. While 9M26 presales of Bt18.6bn (62% of target) likely track toward last year’s Bt26bn, a 4Q26 recovery is expected, driven by new launches worth Bt12.6bn and backlog transfers. Consequently, we maintain our 2026F net profit forecast at Bt4.3bn (+7.9% YoY), underpinned by expanding Australian contributions. Maintain Outperform call with a mid-2027 TP of Bt19/share, based on a PE of 8x.
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SPALI – 3Q26F: Dropping YoY and QoQ
We expect 3Q26 net profit to soften by 21.8% YoY and 44.6% QoQ. We are projecting SPALI to report 3Q26 net profit of Bt913mn (-21.8% YoY, -44.6% QoQ) on revenue of Bt6.1bn (-3.8% YoY, -11.7% QoQ), with a product mix of 75% low-rise and 25% condominium. Transfer phase commenced for Supalai Parc Ekkamai-Pattanakarn (project value Bt4.6bn, 62% presales) and Supalai Kram Khao Tao (project value Bt480mn, 47% presales). However, transfers for Supalai Parc Ekkamai-Pattanakarn were disrupted by flooding, keeping transfers below 10% of presales. Gross margin is estimated at 31.4%, weakening from 35.3% in 3Q25 but improving from 30.3% in 2Q26, supported by stable QoQ low-rise margin and better new condo margin. SG&A to sales is expected at 14.5%, despite slight flood management costs. Share of profit from Australia is estimated at Bt102mn (-33.2% YoY, -88.5% QoQ) due to seasonality. Overall, 9M26F net profit is projected at Bt2.96bn (+10.6% YoY).
3Q26 presales were driven by condominiums, with SPALI reporting 3Q26 presales of Bt5.5bn (-35% YoY, +6% QoQ). Low-rise accounted for 64%, down 17% YoY and 7% QoQ amid ongoing pricing promotions and inventory clearance. Condominiums made up 35%, down 53% YoY off a high base, but up 42% QoQ from RTM sales of newly completed projects. 4Q26 presales outlook should recover both YoY and QoQ, backed by over 10 project launches worth Bt12.6bn. Key highlights include Supalai Kram Pattaya Wong-Amat (Bt1.45bn) and Supalai Tyme Chiangmai (Bt2.5bn), alongside post-flood demand recovery, where SPALI's flood mitigation capabilities should capture incremental demand. Nonetheless, 9M26 presales accounted for 62% of the full-year target of Bt30bn, pointing to a likely miss and settled near last year's Bt26bn.
Maintain 2026 and 2027 forecast. We maintain our net profit forecast for SPALI this year at Bt4.3bn, representing a 7.9% YoY growth, and expect the peak quarterly earnings to have already passed, mainly supported by profit sharing from Australia. Meanwhile, revenue is projected at Bt25bn, up 4.2% YoY, with 4Q26 anticipated to be the peak revenue quarter of the year driven by condominium backlog transfers. For 2027, we expect SPALI to benefit further from its Australian projects, with revenue continuing to grow to Bt26bn (+6.3% YoY) and net profit expanding 14.8% YoY to Bt5bn, supported by a 26% contribution from Australia.
Key risk. Inventory management and competition. 2025 SET ESG rating is AA. ESG key risk : lawsuits filed against certain condos (ESG), GHG emission waste management (E).