The SET is expected to drift lower amid a continued lack of new domestic drivers. Pressures linger as US Treasury yields accelerate and crude oil prices edge higher following a fresh round of military strikes between the US and Iran. Selective buying is expected to remain the primary approach, with investors focusing on individual opportunities. Upstream energy, refiners, banking, and life insurance stocks are likely to continue moving higher. Key events to monitor today include the mobile Cabinet meeting in Songkhla to review southern regional infrastructure and investment plans. Technically, the index has yet to show clear signs of recovery, leaving room for short-term technical rebounds only.
Markets
Higher tension approaches
Today's highlight
• Brent crude rose 2.7% DoD to close at US$90.49/bbl following renewed military clashes between the US and Iran. Additionally, Russia announced plans for widespread attacks on Ukraine in retaliation, further exacerbating Middle East tensions and disrupting European refined oil and gas supply chains. Positive short-term sentiment for energy (PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC), but negative for anti-oil plays (AAV, BA, THAI, GPSC, BGRIM).
• The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 20-month high at 4.76%, pressured by persistent inflation concerns and risks of potential Fed rate hikes to curb oil-driven inflationary pressures. Short-term negative for risk assets, but positive for banking and life insurance (BLA, TLI, BBL, KBANK, KTB).
• The BoT reported July 2026 economic expansion, driven by tech and AI investment cycles boosting exports, a recovering tourism sector, and improved private consumption from long holidays and government measures. Positive for electronics (HANA, KCE, DELTA) and tourism (AOT, ERW, CENTEL, AWC).
• The Senate approved the draft emergency loan decree, which now moves to the screening committee to review project proposals by Sep 30 before final disbursement in 2027. This reinforces confidence in funding plans for clean energy projects and tourism stimulus scheme. Positive for solar rooftop contractors (HMPRO, GUNKUL, SCC, COM7) and tourism (AOT, ERW, CENTEL, AWC).
• TTB and DBS Bank announced a strategic partnership in wealth management. Retail and HNW brokerage operations managed by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) will transfer to TTB Wealth Securities by May 2027, supporting fee income and share sentiment.
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to trade sideways. While the market draws domestic support from expectations around continued government economic stimulus measures — including solar rooftop installation subsidies, tourism stimulus scheme, progress on the FY2027 Budget Bill, and clarity on the PDP2026 plan — headwinds persist from slowing fund flows, the prolonged Middle East situation, and hawkish signals from the Fed Chair at Jackson Hole signaling readiness to raise rates to contain inflation. The investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy".
Trading today
We view the SET as likely to trade sideways. While the market draws support from expectations around domestic economic stimulus measures under consideration, it continues to face headwinds from slowing fund flows, the prolonged Middle East situation, and hawkish signals from the Fed Chair signaling readiness to raise rates to contain inflation. Our investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Policy plays — Stocks positioned to benefit from progress on government economic stimulus measures: Thai Teaw Thai Plus (ERW, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN); clean energy support measures including solar rooftop initiatives and the PDP2026 outcome (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL, WHAUP, AMATA, WHA); and accelerated government disbursement ahead of fiscal year-end and the FY2027 Budget Bill (STECON, CK, SCC, SCCC).
2. Consumption plays — Stocks set to benefit from a recovery in purchasing power and an increasingly resilient domestic economy: commerce (CPALL, CRC, CPN, GLOBAL), telecommunications (TRUE), financials (MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR), and land transport (BEM).
3. Laggard plays — Stocks whose share prices have lagged the broader SET despite 2H26 earnings momentum expected to deliver solid YoY and HoH growth, making them likely targets for speculative rotation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.
4. High dividend plays — To generate steady cash flow returns through interim dividend capture, with expected Div. Interim Yield >2%: TTB (XD Sep 7), BCP (XD Sep 7), OR (XD Sep 7), HMPRO (XD Sep 8), KKP (XD Sep 9).
Daily Top Picks
CPN: Supported by foot traffic growth accelerating in July 2026 compared to 2Q26. The shopping center business continues to grow on higher rental income and full-quarter revenue recognition from new malls (Khon Kaen Campus and Northville). 2026F core profit is projected at Bt18.3bn (+9.6% YoY). Short-term TP is Bt68.25.
KTB: Supported by renewed inflation concerns leading to tighter monetary policy expectations. Loan growth expanded MoM and YTD through July 2026, with potential upside from FVTPL gains from THAI. 2026F profit is expected to grow 1% YoY, with dividend yield remaining high at Bt2.77/share (6.4%). Short-term TP is Bt44.00.