Limited upside

The SET is expected to rebound as US Treasury yields moderate. However, crude oil prices remain elevated due to fresh military clashes between the US and Iran. While reports indicate the US is attempting to prevent the conflict from escalating ahead of the November midterm elections, this continues to cap the market's recovery upside. Selective buying is expected to focus on stocks with individual catalysts and those that saw sharp pullbacks previously. Technically, the index pulled back to test its 75-day moving average, opening room for a short-term rebound, though no clear reversal signals have emerged yet.

Today's highlight
• European gasoline GRM surged near its June 2022 high, touching US$62/bbl on tight global supply conditions amid Middle East and Ukraine tensions, while diesel futures hovered at high levels. Positive sentiment for refiners (TOP, SPRC, BCP).

• The Finance Minister is set to chair the inaugural Data Center Board meeting on Sep 4, 2026, alongside the Bangkok Governor, Energy Ministry, and Natural Resources Ministry to establish oversight, close legal loopholes, and address environmental impacts. The BOI was instructed to stop promoting new projects since April. Impact on industrial estates (AMATA, WHA) is expected to be limited, as most investment flows into non-urban areas and the EEC.

• JSCCIB raised Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1–2.5% and lifted export targets to 12–16%, supported by stronger-than-expected orders and BOI investment applications. It is also assessing Data Center plans, where every 100MW is expected to generate >Bt60bn in investment. Positive overall for Thai equities, particularly banking (KTB, BBL, KBANK), industrial estates (WHA, AMATA), and power producers (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM).

• SET plans to enforce new regulatory measures during Sep–Oct following SEC approval to tighten short-selling, Uptick, and HFT rules alongside enhanced listed company supervision to improve transparency and rebuild investor confidence. Medium- to long-term positive for market stability, especially SET50 constituents.

• The US Commerce Secretary is considering expanding the 25% tariff on advanced semiconductors to chip-containing products, unless companies manufacture domestically, aiming to accelerate reshoring. Impact on electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE) is expected to be limited, as costs are typically passed on to customers.

Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to trade sideways. While the market draws domestic support from expectations around continued government economic stimulus measures — including solar rooftop installation subsidies, tourism stimulus scheme, progress on the FY2027 Budget Bill, and clarity on the PDP2026 plan — headwinds persist from slowing fund flows, the prolonged Middle East situation, and hawkish signals from the Fed Chair at Jackson Hole signaling readiness to raise rates to contain inflation. The investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy".

Trading today
We view the SET as likely to trade sideways. While the market draws support from expectations around domestic economic stimulus measures under consideration, it continues to face headwinds from slowing fund flows, the prolonged Middle East situation, and hawkish signals from the Fed Chair signaling readiness to raise rates to contain inflation. Our investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:

1. Policy plays — Stocks positioned to benefit from progress on government economic stimulus measures: Thai Teaw Thai Plus (ERW, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN); clean energy support measures including solar rooftop initiatives and the PDP2026 outcome (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL, WHAUP, AMATA, WHA); and accelerated government disbursement ahead of fiscal year-end and the FY2027 Budget Bill (STECON, CK, SCC, SCCC).

2. Consumption plays — Stocks set to benefit from a recovery in purchasing power and an increasingly resilient domestic economy: commerce (CPALL, CRC, CPN, GLOBAL), telecommunications (TRUE), financials (MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR), and land transport (BEM).

3. Laggard plays — Stocks whose share prices have lagged the broader SET despite 2H26 earnings momentum expected to deliver solid YoY and HoH growth, making them likely targets for speculative rotation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.

4. High dividend plays — To generate steady cash flow returns through interim dividend capture, with expected Div. Interim Yield >2%: TTB (XD Sep 7), BCP (XD Sep 7), OR (XD Sep 7), HMPRO (XD Sep 8), KKP (XD Sep 9).

Daily Top Picks
HANA: Short-term catalyst from recovery momentum in global tech stock prices and South Korea's August 2026 exports growing 69% YoY. AI-related products are projected to start production in 2H26 and enter mass production in 2Q-4Q27, which will initiate earnings recovery in 2H26 and drive continuous growth from 2027 onwards. Short-term TP is Bt46.75.

KTB: Supported by renewed inflation concerns leading to tighter monetary policy expectations. Loan growth expanded MoM and YTD through July 2026, with potential upside from FVTPL gains from THAI. 2026F profit is expected to grow 1% YoY, with dividend yield remaining high at Bt2.77/share (6.4%). Short-term TP is Bt44.50.