Limited upside

The SET is expected to trade higher, benefiting from a pull-back in US Treasury yields as markets price in a higher probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its Sep 15–16 meeting. However, upside gains are expected to remain capped, while risk-off selling ahead of the weekend could induce market volatility. Domestically, monitor the inaugural meeting of the Data Centre Business Policy Committee today. Internationally, track the release of US August Nonfarm Payrolls tonight. Technically, the index is rebounding but vulnerable to a pullback, signaling a lack of upward momentum with no clear reversal signs in the short term.

Today's highlight
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller supported holding interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, provided inflation figures offer no surprises. The 10-year US Treasury yield dipped slightly, while the FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a September Fed rate hike dropped to 48.4% from 63.2%, easing pressure on risk assets. Short-term positive sentiment for MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR.

• US diesel prices reached a new record high of US$5.82/gal. Meanwhile, Russia revised down its oil production forecast for this year to a 17-year low while lowering fuel export outlooks for 2026–2027. This supports overall refinery margins and keeps crude oil prices elevated. Positive for energy (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, BCP).

• Today, the Finance Minister chairs the Data Center Board meeting to align regulations, tighten BOI permit criteria, and review environmental impacts. Clear regulatory frameworks are expected to unlock overhangs and attract global investments. Positive for industrial estates (AMATA, WHA) and contractors (STECON, CK).

• The Ministry of Finance revised the tourism stimulus scheme guidelines, introducing a single-tier accommodation subsidy, raising daily spending limits, and enabling direct application to service sectors using Bt2bn from emergency loan funds. Submission to the Cabinet is expected before October 1. Positive for tourism (CENTEL, ERW, AOT) and retail (CPALL, CRC, CPN).

• The Prime Minister ordered a review of over 7,000 laws to prepare Thailand as a global economic base. The Finance Minister aims to position Thailand as a "Trusted Connector" in global supply chains by accelerating digital infrastructure, clean energy, and healthcare hub. Long-term positive for utilities (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM), industrial estates (WHA, AMATA), and healthcare (BDMS, BH, BCH).

Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to trade sideways. While the market draws domestic support from expectations around continued government economic stimulus measures — including solar rooftop installation subsidies, tourism stimulus scheme, progress on the FY2027 Budget Bill, and clarity on the PDP2026 plan — headwinds persist from slowing fund flows, the prolonged Middle East situation, and hawkish signals from the Fed Chair at Jackson Hole signaling readiness to raise rates to contain inflation. The investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy".

Trading today
We view the SET as likely to trade sideways. While the market draws support from expectations around domestic economic stimulus measures under consideration, it continues to face headwinds from slowing fund flows, the prolonged Middle East situation, and hawkish signals from the Fed Chair signaling readiness to raise rates to contain inflation. Our investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:

1. Policy plays — Stocks positioned to benefit from progress on government economic stimulus measures: Thai Teaw Thai Plus (ERW, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN); clean energy support measures including solar rooftop initiatives and the PDP2026 outcome (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL, WHAUP, AMATA, WHA); and accelerated government disbursement ahead of fiscal year-end and the FY2027 Budget Bill (STECON, CK, SCC, SCCC).

2. Consumption plays — Stocks set to benefit from a recovery in purchasing power and an increasingly resilient domestic economy: commerce (CPALL, CRC, CPN, GLOBAL), telecommunications (TRUE), financials (MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR), and land transport (BEM).

3. Laggard plays — Stocks whose share prices have lagged the broader SET despite 2H26 earnings momentum expected to deliver solid YoY and HoH growth, making them likely targets for speculative rotation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.

4. High dividend plays — To generate steady cash flow returns through interim dividend capture, with expected Div. Interim Yield >2%: TTB (XD Sep 7), BCP (XD Sep 7), OR (XD Sep 7), HMPRO (XD Sep 8), KKP (XD Sep 9).

Daily Top Picks
BDMS: Catalyst from signs of revenue recovery, with July 2026 growth accelerating to 8% YoY from 1% YoY in 2Q26, which is expected to mark the year's trough. The stock is supported by pent-up demand from both Thai and international patient segments, alongside ongoing efforts to increase high-complexity treatment revenue share and control SG&A expenses. Short-term TP is Bt21.20.

TU: Supported by improving seafood demand and higher margins via cost-efficiency enhancements. The company targets 2026 sales growth of 4–6% YoY, with potential upside from gradual US tariff refunds, tax benefits in the UK, and the EU FTA. Short-term TP is Bt13.50.