Sideways, follow CPI report

The SET is expected to trade volatilely as the market prices in a higher probability of a Fed rate hike at its mid-September meeting, driving US Treasury yields higher. However, investors remain focused on the release of US August PPI and CPI data late this week, which could shift market expectations once again. Domestically, key factors to track today include Thailand's August inflation report and the first day of the parliamentary debate on the FY2027 Budget Bill in its second and third readings. Technically, the index is rebounding; clearing the 1,600 level would signal an improved technical outlook.

Today's highlight
• President Trump posted on Truth Social congratulating the stronger-than-expected August jobs report, while threatening to terminate trade with countries holding trade surpluses with the US if the Fed fails to cut interest rates. This issue heightens global trade policy uncertainty and pressures sentiment for risk assets, especially exporters with major US customer bases (ITC, AAI, TU).

• Brent crude oil prices rose to touch US$97/bbl as US-Iran conflicts escalated following attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, US retail diesel prices hit a record high, sparking concerns over tight global energy supply. Positive for energy plays (PTTEP, TOP, BCP), but negative for anti-oil stocks (AAV, BA, GPSC, BGRIM).

• China’s Ministry of Finance plans to inject US$54bn in liquidity into state banks and insurance companies to strengthen financial system stability and boost economic confidence. Positive for petrochemical plays linked to Chinese demand (PTTGC, IVL, SCC).

• Freight rate indices surged sharply, with SCFI rising to two-year high and BDI rising to five-year high. Growth is driven by accelerating global demand for commodities, iron ore, and agricultural products, combined with geopolitical issues causing port congestion and longer shipping routes. Positive for shipping operators (RCL, PSL, TTA).

• Global sugar prices surged 21.5% in August to their highest level in over 15 years since October 2010 after heatwaves hit European output, while Brazil reduced sugarcane crushing for sugar to produce ethanol amid high oil prices. Coupled with India opening imports, average selling prices are supported. Positive for sugar producers (KSL, BRR, KTIS, KBS).

Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely following pressure from rising energy prices and bond yields, triggering market concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes to combat inflation, along with multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand. However, key factors to monitor will impact the investment atmosphere, particularly US inflation (Sep 11) which will signal rate direction before the FOMC meeting (Sep 15-16), FY2027 budget bill consideration (Sep 7-9) which will help build investment confidence, and the PDP2026 draft hearing opening (Sep 8) which will benefit the clean energy sector. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy".

Trading today
The SET is expected to swing volatilely, pressured by concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes and multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand, while key factors to monitor include US inflation reports, FY2027 budget bill consideration, and PDP2026 draft hearing opening. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" across 4 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:

1. Policy and Domestic Play — Benefiting from accelerated government economic policy implementation: Clean energy and industrial estate stocks (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL, WHAUP, AMATA, WHA) expected to benefit from PDP2026 progress and Solar Rooftop installation subsidies, contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCC, SCCC) benefiting from accelerated government spending before fiscal year-end and FY2027 budget expectations, and retail and tourism stocks (CPALL, CRC, CPN, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) benefiting from Thai Tourism Plus measures.

2. Global Macro & Bond Yield Play — Benefiting from renewed geopolitical tensions pushing energy prices and shipping rates higher, supporting energy (PTTEP, BCP, TOP) and shipping stocks (PSL, TTA), while inflation concerns supporting high bond yields positively impacting bank returns (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance stocks (BLA, TLI).

3. Laggard Play — Stocks with slower price appreciation than the SET but expected strong 2H26 earnings growth both YoY and HoH, making them targets for fund rotation and speculation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.

4. High Dividend Play — To create consistent cash flow into portfolios, focusing on interim dividend payments with expected Div. Interim Yield >2%: HMPRO, KKP, HTC, TOP, PTT.

Daily Top Picks
HANA: Short-term catalyst from recovery momentum in global tech stock prices. Production of high-density PCBA and solid-state cooling is expected to reach full capacity by late 3Q26 and 4Q26, respectively. This is anticipated to drive significant core profit growth in 2H26, extending into 2027F. Short-term TP is Bt47.50.

PTTGC: Supported by lingering Middle East tensions that continue to strain supply chains, holding product spreads at elevated levels across olefins, aromatics, and refining businesses. In 2026F, net profit is projected to turn around to Bt25.2bn from a net loss of Bt14.6bn in the previous year. Short-term TP is Bt46.50.