The SET is expected to move sideways-up. The market still lacks new drivers, while higher US Treasury yields and crude oil prices continue to pressure overall sentiment. Consequently, investors are expected to maintain a selective buy strategy focused on stocks with specific individual drivers. Upstream energy and refinery plays are projected to outperform the broader market, alongside electronics stocks tracking the recovery momentum in global tech shares. Meanwhile, foreign investors turning net buyers should provide underlying support to the market. Technically, the index's movement reflects a slowing rebound, though holding above the 1,600-point level keeps the broader outlook positive.
Markets
Sideways up as fund flow returns
Today’s highlights
• Brent crude oil prices rose around 2% to touch US$99.05/bbl after Houthi rebel attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia forced multiple oil facilities to halt production. Meanwhile, the US retaliated by imposing sanctions on 27 Iranian airlines, heightening concerns over tight global oil supply. Short-term positive sentiment for energy plays (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, BCP).
•EPPO opened public hearings for the draft PDP2026, targeting a 60–80% share of renewable energy and incorporating up to 9,000MW of SMR nuclear power to support 22,000–30,000MW of Data Center and EV demand. The draft also supports Direct PPA liberalization while capping average electricity tariffs at Bt3.88/unit. Positive sentiment for power producers and high-voltage transmission contractors (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL).
•The Ministry of Finance and the Tourism Ministry finalized the tourism stimulus scheme. The plan offers 1 million privileges with a flat-rate room subsidy of Bt1,500/night plus a co-pay travel voucher of Bt1,500/privilege, increasing to Bt2,000 for secondary cities. Registration opens October 1, with redemption starting November 1. Positive for tourism (ERW, CENTEL, MINT, SPA).
•Watch Apple's launch event tonight featuring the iPhone 18 series and the foldable iPhone Ultra. The release is expected to generate strong consumer response and boost year-end sales. Positive for mobile distributors (COM7, ADVICE, SYNEX).
•UTCC reported the Aug Consumer Confidence Index at 53.2, rising to a 6-month high. However, Sep–Oct will be a crucial inflection point for whether the economy sustains momentum or stumbles, amidst Middle East conflicts, oil prices, Thai-US trade talks, and domestic politics. Positive for retail (CPALL, CPN, CRC, HMPRO).
Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely following pressure from rising energy prices and bond yields, triggering market concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes to combat inflation, along with multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand. However, key factors to monitor will impact the investment atmosphere, particularly US inflation (Sep 11) which will signal rate direction before the FOMC meeting (Sep 15-16), FY2027 budget bill consideration (Sep 7-9) which will help build investment confidence, and the PDP2026 draft hearing opening (Sep 8) which will benefit the clean energy sector. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy"
Trading today
The SET is expected to swing volatilely, pressured by concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes and multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand, while key factors to monitor include US inflation reports, FY2027 budget bill consideration, and PDP2026 draft hearing opening. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" across 3 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:
1. Policy and Domestic Play — Benefiting from accelerated government economic policy implementation: Clean energy and industrial estate stocks (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL, WHAUP, AMATA, WHA) expected to benefit from PDP2026 progress and Solar Rooftop installation subsidies, contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCC, SCCC) benefiting from accelerated government spending before fiscal year-end and FY2027 budget expectations, and retail and tourism stocks (CPALL, CRC, CPN, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) benefiting from Thai Tourism Plus measures.
2. Global Macro & Bond Yield Play — Benefiting from renewed geopolitical tensions pushing energy prices and shipping rates higher, supporting energy (PTTEP, BCP, TOP) and shipping stocks (PSL, TTA), while inflation concerns supporting high bond yields positively impacting bank returns (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance stocks (BLA, TLI).
3. Laggard Play — Stocks with slower price appreciation than the SET but expected strong 2H26 earnings growth both YoY and HoH, making them targets for fund rotation and speculation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.
Daily Top Picks
HANA: Short-term catalyst from recovery momentum in global tech stock prices. Full production capacity for high-density PCBA and solid-state cooling is expected in late 3Q26 and 4Q26, respectively. This is projected to drive significant core profit growth in 2H26, extending into 2027F. Short-term TP is Bt48.00.
PTTGC: Supported by lingering Middle East tensions that continue to strain supply chains, holding product spreads at elevated levels across olefins, aromatics, and refining businesses. In 2026F, net profit is projected to turn around to Bt25.2bn from a net loss of Bt14.6bn in the previous year. Short-term TP is Bt48.25.