Tension rises

The SET is expected to pull back into consolidation as the market enters a risk-off phase, pressured by the US 10-year Treasury yield hitting a more than 2-year high alongside continuously rising crude oil prices, which weigh on overall investment sentiment. Investors are expected to remain selective, picking stocks with individual catalysts such as upstream energy, refiners, petrochemicals, and life insurance plays. Key factors to monitor remain focused primarily on US inflation data to gauge interest rate signals ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Technically, the index may see short-term pullbacks; however, as long as it holds above the 1600 level, the overall technical picture remains positive.

Today’s highlights
• Brent rose 3.4% to touch US$100/bbl, hitting a high since May 22, driven by supply tightness concerns following US-Iran military clashes, Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, and recovering Chinese demand. Positive for energy (PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC, IRPC) and petrochemicals (PTTGC, IVL), but negative for SPP (GPSC, BGRIM) on rising fuel cost risks.

• The US Treasury Secretary announced a US$6bn long-term bond buyback plan, doubling the previous amount but lower than expectations. Consequently, 2-year and 10-year yields rose 4 bps. Markets are closely tracking CPI report to gauge the Fed's stance ahead of meeting. Short-term positive for insurance (BLA, TLI).

• The Ministry of Finance is preparing to open registration for the rooftop solar scheme in mid-October, offering subsidies of Bt50,000 per household for an estimated 1 million participating households. This will boost equipment sales and installation services, benefiting rooftop solar manufacturers, distributors, and installers (GULF, SCC, GUNKUL, HMPRO, GLOBAL, COM7).

• The SET is pushing forward capital market structural legislation in two main areas: TISA to promote long-term savings, and personal trust law reform to serve an aging society and attract HNW capital back to Thailand. Clarity is expected within 1–2 years, enhancing liquidity and long-term stability. Positive for banks and wealth management businesses (KBANK, BBL, TISCO, KKP).

• Apple launched the iPhone 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max, and its first foldable model, iPhone Duo. Thailand is in the Tier 1 group, with Pro pre-orders opening Sep 12 (sales Sep 18) and Duo pre-orders on Oct 16 (sales Oct 23), driving Q3–Q4 sales. Positive for mobile distributors (COM7, SYNEX, ADVICE, CRC, ADVANC, TRUE).

Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely following pressure from rising energy prices and bond yields, triggering market concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes to combat inflation, along with multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand. However, key factors to monitor will impact the investment atmosphere, particularly US inflation (Sep 11) which will signal rate direction before the FOMC meeting (Sep 15-16), FY2027 budget bill consideration (Sep 7-9) which will help build investment confidence, and the PDP2026 draft hearing opening (Sep 8) which will benefit the clean energy sector. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy".

Trading today
The SET is expected to swing volatilely, pressured by concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes and multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand, while key factors to monitor include US inflation reports, FY2027 budget bill consideration, and PDP2026 draft hearing opening. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" across 3 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:

1. Policy and Domestic Play — Benefiting from accelerated government economic policy implementation: Clean energy and industrial estate stocks (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL, WHAUP, AMATA, WHA) expected to benefit from PDP2026 progress and Solar Rooftop installation subsidies, contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCC, SCCC) benefiting from accelerated government spending before fiscal year-end and FY2027 budget expectations, and retail and tourism stocks (CPALL, CRC, CPN, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) benefiting from Thai Tourism Plus measures.

2. Global Macro & Bond Yield Play — Benefiting from renewed geopolitical tensions pushing energy prices and shipping rates higher, supporting energy (PTTEP, BCP, TOP) and shipping stocks (PSL, TTA), while inflation concerns supporting high bond yields positively impacting bank returns (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance stocks (BLA, TLI).

3. Laggard Play — Stocks with slower price appreciation than the SET but expected strong 2H26 earnings growth both YoY and HoH, making them targets for fund rotation and speculation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.

Daily Top Picks
BCP: Short-term catalyst from lingering Middle East tensions and concerns over insufficient European gas reserves ahead of winter. These factors are expected to keep refining margins elevated while European gas prices surged to a 3.5-year high. The company is actively diversifying its business to support long-term growth across all segments. Short-term TP is Bt59.75.

CRC: Supported by 3Q26TD SSS growth of 1.5% YoY, accelerating QoQ in both Thailand and Vietnam to lead the retail peer group. Margin expansion is expected to drive robust 3Q26F earnings performance, standing out within the discretionary retail sector. Short-term TP is Bt30.50.