The SET is expected to trade lower, weighed by a rebound in crude prices following an attack on a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline, which forced the postponement of today's meeting between foreign ministers of the Arab Gulf states and Iran. Additionally, uncertain fund flows are expected to keep the market in a risk-off posture, with investors adopting a selective buy strategy focused on stocks with specific individual drivers. Domestically, track the ECT’s scheduled vote today on the petition regarding alleged collusion in the Senate election to determine if it was conducted fairly and honestly. Technically, the index is hovering around the 1,600-point level; a drop below this threshold would signal a negative technical outlook.
Markets
Remain risk-off
Today's highlights
• The US reported Aug CPI rose 3.4%YoY, with Core CPI up 2.4%YoY,. However, the FedWatch Tool indicates markets raised the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting to 85.8%. This pushed 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields up ~8 bps and 3 bps, respectively. Short-term positive for banking (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance plays (BLA, TLI).
• Iran and Oman reached an agreement regarding access parameters for the Strait of Hormuz, reiterating it will not reopen until the US accepts its seven demands. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East-West pipeline following attacks—threatening to disrupt up to 4% of global crude supply. Short-term positive for energy plays (PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC).
• The BOI Board approved 17 additional Thailand FastPass projects from 15 companies valued at over Bt121bn across four targeted sectors, driving continued FDI inflows into Thailand. Positive for industrial estates (AMATA, WHA) and banking (KTB, BBL, KBANK).
• The Permanent Secretary for Finance stated that the ministry received a request from the Ministry of Interior to allocate up to Bt75bn from emergency loan funds for the residential rooftop solar subsidy scheme (Bt50,000/household). The target has expanded from 1 million to 1.5 million households, boosting equipment sales and installation work. Positive for solar suppliers and contractors (GUNKUL, HMPRO, DOHOME, GLOBAL).
• The Prime Minister affirmed the government will continuously advance the "Half-half Plus" scheme into 4Q26 to ease living costs amid volatile global oil prices driven by Middle East tensions, preserving domestic purchasing power momentum. Positive for commerce plays (CPALL, CPAXT, BJC).
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to move sideways. While the index draws support from the energy sector on the back of rising crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, the market continues to face uncertainty from key factors to monitor — including the Fed meeting (Sep 15–16) with Dot Plot and the BOJ meeting (Sep 18) for signals on policy rate direction and implications for yen carry trade, both of which will have a direct bearing on global fund flows, as well as the domestic political front where the Election Commission is set to vote on Sep 14 on whether to refer the Senate election collusion case to the Supreme Court. The investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" opportunities.
Trading today
The SET is expected to move sideways. While Energy provides some support on the back of rising oil prices, the market continues to face uncertainty from the FOMC and BOJ meetings on interest rate direction and yen carry trade implications, and political developments surrounding the ruling on the Senate election collusion case. Our investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Defensive & high dividend plays — Stocks expected to deliver a consistently high Div. Yield of above 5% p.a., providing steady cash flow and a safe haven amid market volatility ahead of the Fed meeting and domestic political developments: BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC, PTT, FTREIT, LHSC.
2. Global macro & bond yield plays — Stocks benefiting from geopolitical tensions driving up energy prices and freight rates, supporting the energy sector (PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC) and shipping (PSL, TTA); with elevated bond yields also providing a tailwind for investment returns in banking (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance (BLA, TLI).
3. Policy plays — Stocks positioned to benefit from government economic policy initiatives: clean energy and industrial estates (GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA, WHA) on progress in drafting the PDP2026 plan and solar rooftop installation support; contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCCC) on accelerated budget disbursement and the anticipated passage of the FY2027 Budget Bill; retail and tourism (CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) on the Thai Teaw Thai Plus measures; and electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE) on investment promotion policies for data centers and AI.
4. Laggard plays — Stocks whose share prices have lagged the broader SET despite 2H26 earnings momentum expected to deliver solid YoY and HoH growth, making them likely targets for speculative rotation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.
Daily Top Picks
BCP: Short-term catalyst from lingering Middle East tensions and energy supply disruption concerns, which are expected to keep crude oil prices and refining margins elevated. Meanwhile, European gas prices hit a 3.5-year high due to concerns over insufficient winter reserves, benefiting OKEA's gas business. Short-term TP is Bt57.75.
PR9: Short-term catalyst from recovering revenue, as Thai patient volume turned around to grow YoY in July 2026 on seasonality, after a 0.3% contraction in 2Q26. Meanwhile, foreign patient volume remains on a strong growth trend, particularly from Middle Eastern and Myanmar markets. 2H26 revenue is expected to accelerate from 2Q26 and grow at a mid-single-digit rate. Short-term TP is Bt20.00.