The SET is expected to base-build sideways. The index may see intermittent rebounds after the Fed raised interest rates as expected, though the Dot Plot signaled a hawkish stance that reinforces tighter monetary policy. However, easing crude oil prices should help relieve short-term pressure. Investors are expected to remain selective, picking stocks with individual catalysts as well as laggards that underperformed the broader market. Today, monitor the Bank of England (BoE) meeting. Technically, the index is testing the lower bound of a sideways-down channel; holding above this level could prompt a short-term rebound.
Markets
The Fed raised policy as expected
Today's highlights
• The FOMC unanimously voted to raise the policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%. The Chairman reiterated persistent inflation risks, while the Dot Plot indicates one more rate hike this year, pushing the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields to 4.738% and 5.016%, respectively. Short-term negative for risk assets, but positive for banks (BBL, KBANK, KTB) and insurance (TLI, BLA).
• Brent fell 2.7% to close at US$105.83/bbl after Saudi Arabia acted swiftly to increase oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz with US military assistance. Additionally, the API reported crude stocks rose by 7.1mn barrels last week. Short-term negative for energy stocks (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, BCP).
• The Tourism Minister stated the tourism stimulus scheme will likely be postponed from the high season to the low season in April 2027 to maximize economic stimulus impact. Though short-term negative sentiment for tourism plays (AOT, CENTEL, ERW), share price weakness presents accumulation opportunities as 4Q26 profit is expected to be the peak of the year.
• The Finance Minister revealed Thailand may impose a ~30% excise tax on EV imports to incentivize domestic production, following the EV Board's approved 3-tier tax structure. Positive for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA) and auto parts suppliers (AH, SAT, STANLY).
• AMATA disclosed that Homa Appliances, a major Chinese cooling appliance manufacturer, decided to invest over Bt3.1bn to establish a production base at Amata City Chonburi Industrial Estate. Chinese investors remain interested in Thailand as a regional production hub due to ready infrastructure, strategic location, and supply chains. Positive for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA).
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to trade sideways. While the index draws support from the energy sector on the back of rising crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, the market continues to face macroeconomic uncertainty following the FOMC's decision to raise the policy rate by 25bps and a clearly hawkish Dot Plot signaling a further possible rate hike before year-end — reinforcing the tighter monetary policy outlook. The BOJ meeting outcome (Sep 18) also warrants close attention for its implications on yen carry trade and the resulting impact on global fund flows. The investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" opportunities.
Trading today
The SET is expected to move sideways. While the energy sector provides support on the back of rising crude oil prices, the market continues to face macroeconomic headwinds following the Fed's 25bps rate hike and a Dot Plot signaling one further hike this year, with the BOJ meeting outcome also requiring close monitoring for its implications on yen carry trade and global fund flows. Our investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Defensive & high dividend plays — Stocks expected to deliver a consistently high Div. Yield of above 5% p.a., providing steady cash flow and a safe haven amid market volatility ahead of the Fed meeting and domestic political developments: BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC, PTT, FTREIT, LHSC.
2. Global macro & bond yield plays — Stocks benefiting from geopolitical tensions driving up energy prices and freight rates, supporting the energy sector (PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC) and shipping (PSL, TTA); with elevated bond yields also providing a tailwind for investment returns in banking (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance (BLA, TLI).
3. Policy plays — Stocks positioned to benefit from government economic policy initiatives: clean energy and industrial estates (GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA, WHA) on progress in drafting the PDP2026 plan and solar rooftop installation support; contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCCC) on accelerated budget disbursement and the anticipated passage of the FY2027 Budget Bill; retail and tourism (CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) on the Thai Teaw Thai Plus measures; and electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE) on investment promotion policies for data centers and AI.
4. Laggard plays — Stocks whose share prices have lagged the broader SET despite 2H26 earnings momentum expected to deliver solid YoY and HoH growth, making them likely targets for speculative rotation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.
Daily Top Picks
ERW: RevPAR is estimated to rise 8% YoY during July–August 2026, beating the company's target. 3Q26 core profit is expected to accelerate before peaking in 4Q26, driven by the tourism high season, China's Golden Week, major global events in October, and the rollout of tourism stimulus scheme in November. Short-term TP is Bt3.94.
KTB: Supported by concerns over monetary policy tightening and potential policy rate hikes. Loans are expected to continue growing, with earnings upside from FVTPL gains related to THAI. 2026F net profit is projected to grow 1% YoY, with dividend remaining high at Bt2.77/share (6.4% dividend yield). Short-term TP is Bt45.25.