The SET is expected to move sideways-up, buoyed by positive sentiment from Fitch Ratings' upgrade of Thailand's credit outlook, which is boosting foreign investor confidence. Externally, the market should gain support as US officials initiate trade talks with China ahead of the bilateral summit between President Trump and President Xi scheduled for later this week. However, escalating geopolitical tensions could act as a key factor capping the index's upside. Technically, the index is undergoing a volatile recovery, and a failure to clear 1600 keeps the overall outlook from turning strongly positive.
Markets
Limited upside
Today's highlights
• Geopolitical tensions flared simultaneously in two regions after Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for an attack on Riyadh, while Ukraine struck energy infrastructure in Moscow. Intensifying supply tightness risks present a short-term positive for energy plays (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC).
• Fitch Ratings revised Thailand's outlook to Stable from Negative while affirming its sovereign credit rating at 'BBB+', citing improved government political stability, policy continuity, and reduced political uncertainty that support foreign investor confidence. Long-term positive for the Thai stock market and banking sector (BBL, KTB, KBANK).
• The Prime Minister instructed to prepare for a new potential oil crisis as Middle East conflict prolongs. A relief package will be proposed to the Cabinet on Sep 22 to subsidize prices alongside Phase 2 of "Half-half Plus" to sustain grassroots purchasing power. Slightly positive for commerce (CPALL, CPAXT, BJC).
• NESDC revealed regulatory guidelines for Data Center businesses, which will take effect in mid-Oct 2026. Easing regulatory uncertainty clears the path for tech giants to continue investments. Short-term positive for industrial estates (AMATA, WHA) and power producers (GULF, WHAUP, GUNKUL).
• EPPO approved holding the Ft rate for the Sep–Dec 2026 at Bt0.1623/unit, asking EGAT and PTT to absorb accumulated costs while utilizing Bt16.1bn in windfall benefits to reduce electricity costs. EPPO also approved expanding household solar under Net Billing, raising the overall target to 10,000MW at a purchase rate of Bt2.20/unit for 20 years. Positive for rooftop solar installers and suppliers (GULF, GUNKUL, HMPRO, SCC).
Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely with downside risk as the index remains unable to stand above the psychological support level of 1600 points. Investment sentiment continues to face pressure from macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals via Dot Plot indicating potentially one more rate hike this year, supporting sustained high bond yields, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping Brent crude oil elevated above US$100/bbl. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" with emphasis on "Buy on Dip".
Trading today
The SET is expected to be volatile with downside risk following the index breaking below the psychological support of 1600 points. Investment sentiment remains pressured by macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals suggesting potentially one more rate hike this year, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping crude oil prices elevated. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" emphasizing "Buy on Dip" through 3 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:
1. Rate Hike & Weak Baht Play — Benefiting structurally from high bond yields, creating reinvestment yield advantage as cash flows and maturing securities can be reinvested at higher yields. This includes bank stocks (BBL, KTB), life insurance stocks (TLI), and export stocks benefiting from weak baht (TU).
2. Domestic Play — Income-based domestically with high pricing power and benefiting from government economic stimulus measures, providing resilience to external risks. Includes commerce/retail stocks (CPALL, CRC) and healthcare stocks (BCH, PR9).
3. High Dividend Play — Expected to deliver consistent dividend yields exceeding 5% annually, creating cash flow and serving as safe haven amid market volatility. Includes BBL, KTB, FTREIT, LHSC.
Daily Top Picks
KCE: Short-term catalyst from South Korea’s export value during the first 20 days of September 2026, which continued to grow strongly at 78% YoY, alongside a weakening baht trend. 2H26 operating results are expected to maintain a growth trajectory, supported by an average selling price (ASP) increase of ~10–12% and HDI capacity expansion to meet elevated demand. Short-term TP is Bt67.50.
SPRC: Short-term catalyst from ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly attacks on two Russian oil refineries by Ukraine—removing ~450,000 bpd of refining capacity—which further exacerbates historically low global refined product inventories. This supply tightness is expected to keep refining margins elevated. Short-term TP is Bt14.70.