The SET is expected to extend its gain, supported by a sharp drop in crude oil prices following news that the US President is ready to negotiate with Iran, alongside a pullback in US Treasury yields, which created positive sentiment for risk assets. Electronics stocks are expected to rise in tandem with global tech shares, alongside anti-oil plays. Today, monitor the Cabinet meeting as it considers extending the "Half-half Plus" scheme, as well as the revision of the Map Ta Phut Industrial Port Development Phase 3 (Stage 2) plan. Technically, the index rebounded; holding above 1600 points would gradually improve the overall picture.
Markets
Expect to stand above 1600
Today's highlights
• The US President stated readiness to negotiate with Iran at the upcoming UN General Assembly (UNGA) session this week, easing investment tensions. This led Brent crude prices to drop 3.4% to US$100.34/bbl and US Treasury yields to decline. Positive sentiment for overall risk assets, but negative for upstream energy (PTTEP).
• Energy consultancy Energy Aspects estimates Europe could face severe jet fuel shortages in 4Q26 due to the prolonged Middle East conflict, while refined product stocks sit at 7-year lows. Positive for refiners (TOP, BCP, SPRC) for high-risk-tolerant investors.
• Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand reached 464,200 last week, up 5.7% WoW, driven by Japan's Silver Week. Arrivals are expected to rise further in the near term, supported by South Korea's Chuseok festival and China's Golden Week. Positive for tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT).
• The Finance Minister is considering targeted fuel excise tax cuts on specific products like E20 and B20 to ease energy cost burdens for the public and agricultural sector producing ethanol and biodiesel, rather than broad fuel tax cuts to avoid fiscal risks. Positive sentiment for alternative energy (BBGI, UBE).
• South Korea reported exports for Sep 1–20 surged 78% YoY to US$71.4bn on strong chip exports—the highest value ever recorded for the first 20 days of any month, breaking the previous record of US$61.7bn set in June this year. Exports to the US jumped 118% YoY to US$14.2bn. Positive for electronics (KCE, HANA, DELTA).
Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely with downside risk as the index remains unable to stand above the psychological support level of 1600 points. Investment sentiment continues to face pressure from macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals via Dot Plot indicating potentially one more rate hike this year, supporting sustained high bond yields, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping Brent crude oil elevated above US$100/bbl. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" with emphasis on "Buy on Dip".
Trading today
The SET is expected to be volatile with downside risk following the index breaking below the psychological support of 1600 points. Investment sentiment remains pressured by macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals suggesting potentially one more rate hike this year, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping crude oil prices elevated. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" emphasizing "Buy on Dip" through 3 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:
1. Rate Hike & Weak Baht Play — Benefiting structurally from high bond yields, creating reinvestment yield advantage as cash flows and maturing securities can be reinvested at higher yields. This includes bank stocks (BBL, KTB), life insurance stocks (TLI), and export stocks benefiting from weak baht (TU).
2. Domestic Play — Income-based domestically with high pricing power and benefiting from government economic stimulus measures, providing resilience to external risks. Includes commerce/retail stocks (CPALL, CRC) and healthcare stocks (BCH, PR9).
3. High Dividend Play — Expected to deliver consistent dividend yields exceeding 5% annually, creating cash flow and serving as safe haven amid market volatility. Includes BBL, KTB, FTREIT, LHSC.
Daily Top Picks
GPSC: Short-term catalyst from lower fuel costs, alongside growth drivers via capacity expansion under PDP2026, the Direct PPA policy, and in India through Avaada Energy. Further upside is supported by rising electricity demand from data center industries and feasibility studies on Small Modular Reactor (SMR) nuclear power projects. Short-term TP is Bt49.00.
KCE: Short-term catalyst from upward momentum in global tech stocks and expected surging demand for industrial humanoid robots going forward. 2H26 earnings are projected to grow continuously, driven by selling price hikes, HDI capacity expansion, and efficient cost control. Short-term TP is Bt70.00.