The SET is expected to move sideways-up. Oil prices continued to decline after supply disruption concerns eased. The market continues to watch whether US-Iran negotiations will see progress, while US Treasury yields ticked up slightly after comments from several Fed officials supported further interest rate hikes, which may pose a slight headwind. Nevertheless, electronics stocks are expected to continue supporting the market in tandem with the rise in global tech shares. Technically, the index moved up but faced intermittent selling pressure; however, holding above 1600 points would make the recovery trend progressively clearer.
Markets
Sideways, expecting new catalyst
Today's highlights
• Brent dropped 1.1% to US$99.25/bbl, hitting a 2-week low as concerns over oil supply eased as Saudi Arabia will reopen its East-West Pipeline. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official stated Iran could open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US reduces military pressure. Short-term positive for anti-oil plays (THAI, BA, GPSC, BGRIM), but negative for upstream energy (PTTEP).
• President Trump expressed support for a US diesel export ban after domestic fuel prices hit record highs. If implemented, this measure is expected to trap diesel supply, driving Asian refining spreads higher and boosting margins for refiners, though posing risks to transport costs. Positive for refiners (TOP, SPRC, IRPC).
• The Cabinet approved extending of the "Half-half Plus" scheme, offering Bt1,000 per person during Oct–Nov 2026. Welfare cardholders who qualified before Oct 1, 2026, will also see their monthly allowance increased from Bt300 to Bt1,000 for Oct 2026, boosting domestic purchasing power. Positive for retail (CPALL, BJC, CPAXT, TNP) and consumer finance (TIDLOR, MTC, SAWAD).
• Watch GULF as Singtel's 90-day lock-up period expires, leaving its remaining 4.95% stake (739mn shares) as an overhang that can be traded freely without mandatory SEC filing. While business fundamentals remain intact, it presents short-term sentiment pressure and caps price upside. Neutral to negative for GULF.
• The Oil Fund balance is expected to reach a Bt100bn deficit by late Sep to early Oct, driven by price subsidies of ~Bt700mn/day. The government plans to propose an additional Bt100bn loan and is considering targeted subsidies to ease the fund's burden. Energy price intervention uncertainties raise marketing margin concerns. Negative for oil retailers (OR, PTG).
Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely with downside risk as the index remains unable to stand above the psychological support level of 1600 points. Investment sentiment continues to face pressure from macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals via Dot Plot indicating potentially one more rate hike this year, supporting sustained high bond yields, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping Brent crude oil elevated above US$100/bbl. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" with emphasis on "Buy on Dip".
Trading today
The SET is expected to be volatile with downside risk following the index breaking below the psychological support of 1600 points. Investment sentiment remains pressured by macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals suggesting potentially one more rate hike this year, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping crude oil prices elevated. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" emphasizing "Buy on Dip" through 3 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:
1. Rate Hike & Weak Baht Play — Benefiting structurally from high bond yields, creating reinvestment yield advantage as cash flows and maturing securities can be reinvested at higher yields. This includes bank stocks (BBL, KTB), life insurance stocks (TLI), and export stocks benefiting from weak baht (TU).
2. Domestic Play — Income-based domestically with high pricing power and benefiting from government economic stimulus measures, providing resilience to external risks. Includes commerce/retail stocks (CPALL, CRC) and healthcare stocks (BCH, PR9).
3. High Dividend Play — Expected to deliver consistent dividend yields exceeding 5% annually, creating cash flow and serving as safe haven amid market volatility. Includes BBL, KTB, FTREIT, LHSC.
Daily Top Picks
CENTEL: Short-term catalyst from long holidays across Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, and China), which is expected to support foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand going forward. Meanwhile, RevPAR is showing signs of acceleration in 2H26 across both domestic hotels and overseas properties (Maldives and Dubai). 2026F core profit is projected to grow 18%. Short-term TP is Bt45.50.
GPSC: Short-term catalyst from lower fuel costs, alongside growth drivers via capacity expansion under PDP2026, the Direct PPA policy, and in India through Avaada Energy. Further upside is supported by rising electricity demand from data center industries and feasibility studies on Small Modular Reactor (SMR) nuclear power projects. Short-term TP is Bt49.75.