Range-bound, watch Trump-Xi summit

The SET is expected to base-build sideways. The index may see a pullback following rising oil prices triggered by the aggressive stances of Iran and the US, alongside surging US Treasury yields amid concerns that the Fed may continue raising interest rates. Meanwhile, the market is closely watching today's summit between President Trump and President Xi, after the US Treasury Secretary revealed that both sides agreed to extend the trade truce through January 10 next year. Domestically, monitor Thailand's August import-export data today. Technically, the index is undergoing a volatile recovery, but holding above 1600 points maintains a positive outlook.

Today's highlights
• Brent surged 3.9% to US$103.08/bbl after Iran stated would not yield to US pressure, while Trump threatened to strike Iran if an agreement cannot be reached, pressuring risk assets. Negative for anti-oil plays, but positive for insurance (BLA, TLI) and energy (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, IRPC).

• The OFFO resolved to reduce diesel subsidies, driving retail diesel prices up by Bt0.75/litre—with B7 rising to Bt41.44/litre—to support the Oil Fund's position amid higher global oil prices. This is expected to weigh on the cost of living and future fuel consumption. Short-term negative for oil retailers (OR, PTG) and consumer finance (MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR).

• Fitch Ratings upgraded the credit outlook for five Thai commercial banks—EXIM, KTB, TTB, SCBT, and UOBT—to "Stable" from "Negative", following the earlier sovereign credit rating outlook upgrade. This reflects a positive view on financial stability. Positive for banks (KTB, TTB, BBL, KBANK).

• The UTCC supports the government in accelerating the conclusion of three major trade deals with the US, EU, and UAE to elevate exports and open doors for FDI and advanced tech investments, which is projected to boost GDP growth by an additional ~2% over three years. Combined with recent baht weakness, this is short-term positive for exporters (DELTA, HANA, KCE, TU, ITC) and industrial estates (WHA, AMATA).

• The Cabinet held discussions with executives from BofA, Microsoft, and PIMCO in New York, highlighting policies supporting the digital economy, data centers, and clean energy to attract capital investments. Long-term positive for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA) and clean energy (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, WHAUP, GUNKUL).

Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely with downside risk as the index remains unable to stand above the psychological support level of 1600 points. Investment sentiment continues to face pressure from macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals via Dot Plot indicating potentially one more rate hike this year, supporting sustained high bond yields, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping Brent crude oil elevated above US$100/bbl. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" with emphasis on "Buy on Dip".

Trading today
The SET is expected to be volatile with downside risk following the index breaking below the psychological support of 1600 points. Investment sentiment remains pressured by macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals suggesting potentially one more rate hike this year, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping crude oil prices elevated. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" emphasizing "Buy on Dip" through 3 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:

1. Rate Hike & Weak Baht Play — Benefiting structurally from high bond yields, creating reinvestment yield advantage as cash flows and maturing securities can be reinvested at higher yields. This includes bank stocks (BBL, KTB), life insurance stocks (TLI), and export stocks benefiting from weak baht (TU).

2. Domestic Play — Income-based domestically with high pricing power and benefiting from government economic stimulus measures, providing resilience to external risks. Includes commerce/retail stocks (CPALL, CRC) and healthcare stocks (BCH, PR9).

3. High Dividend Play — Expected to deliver consistent dividend yields exceeding 5% annually, creating cash flow and serving as safe haven amid market volatility. Includes BBL, KTB, FTREIT, LHSC.

Daily Top Picks
GUNKUL: Supported by growth opportunities driven by government policies, rooftop solar support measures, and demand for clean energy capacity. This positions the company to benefit as a distributor, installer, and auction participant. 2026F net profit is projected to grow 31% YoY and continue expanding by 12% in 2027F. Short-term TP is Bt5.45.

PR9: Expected to see limited impact from escalating external uncertainties. Meanwhile, 2H26 earnings show a strong growth trend, supported by a recovery in domestic patient volumes, the gradual return of international patients seeking medical services, higher revenue from complex medical treatments, and effective cost management. Short-term TP is Bt19.90.