The SET is expected to move sideways-down as the market returns to a risk-off regime following a further surge in US Treasury yields and rising oil prices, creating negative sentiment for risk assets. However, insurance and upstream energy stocks are projected to outperform the broader index. Meanwhile, the market continues to monitor progress on the upcoming summit between President Trump and President Xi. Domestically, investors are keeping an eye on political movements. Technically, the index is pulling back; a breakdown below 1,600 points could lead to further downside momentum.
Markets
Back to risk-off mode
Today's highlights
• Brent rose 3.4% on concerns following a lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.223%, its highest level since June 2007, as the Philadelphia Fed President voiced support for continued rate hikes to curb inflation. Positive for insurance (BLA, TLI) and energy (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, IRPC).
• The Prime Minister met with Google to reaffirm long-term cooperation in driving Thailand's digital economy through Google's US$1bn investment to develop a data center in Chonburi and a Google Cloud Region in Bangkok, along with expanding AI collaboration. Positive for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA) and clean energy (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL).
• The Semiconductor Board approved the first National Semiconductor and Advanced Electronics Industry Development Strategy, targeting Bt500bn in investment by 2030 and Bt2.5tn by 2050. Positive for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA) and electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE).
• The Transport Minister disclosed progress on BMTA's fleet transition plan from combustion to EV buses, with the first batch of 1,520 EV buses scheduled for delivery in 2027 (500 by March, 500 by April, and 520 by May), prior to procuring an additional 800 units to reach a 100% EV fleet in 2027. Positive for related stocks (EA, NEX).
• The PTT Board approved an interim dividend payment of Bt1.40/share (XD Oct 7), totaling Bt39.6bn. It also approved the resale of 238.66mn treasury shares from Sep 28 to Oct 12. Though representing a small 0.84% of paid-up capital, the sale will enhance free float over the long term. Positive for PTT's share price.
Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely with downside risk as the index remains unable to stand above the psychological support level of 1600 points. Investment sentiment continues to face pressure from macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals via Dot Plot indicating potentially one more rate hike this year, supporting sustained high bond yields, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping Brent crude oil elevated above US$100/bbl. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" with emphasis on "Buy on Dip".
Trading today
The SET is expected to be volatile with downside risk following the index breaking below the psychological support of 1600 points. Investment sentiment remains pressured by macro factors including tightening monetary policy after the Fed raised rates last week and sent hawkish signals suggesting potentially one more rate hike this year, and supply and inflation pressures from prolonged Middle East tensions keeping crude oil prices elevated. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" emphasizing "Buy on Dip" through 3 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:
1. Rate Hike & Weak Baht Play — Benefiting structurally from high bond yields, creating reinvestment yield advantage as cash flows and maturing securities can be reinvested at higher yields. This includes bank stocks (BBL, KTB), life insurance stocks (TLI), and export stocks benefiting from weak baht (TU).
2. Domestic Play — Income-based domestically with high pricing power and benefiting from government economic stimulus measures, providing resilience to external risks. Includes commerce/retail stocks (CPALL, CRC) and healthcare stocks (BCH, PR9).
3. High Dividend Play — Expected to deliver consistent dividend yields exceeding 5% annually, creating cash flow and serving as safe haven amid market volatility. Includes BBL, KTB, FTREIT, LHSC.
Daily Top Picks
TU: Short-term catalyst from a weaker baht supporting export revenues and positive expectations regarding international trade negotiations across multiple regions (US, Europe, UK). 2026 sales are expected to grow 4–6% YoY, accompanied by higher gross profit margins driven by efficient cost and expense management. Short-term TP is Bt13.50.
WHA: Supported by strategic development in the semiconductor and advanced electronics industries. 2H26 earnings are projected to post strong growth, with the 2026 land sales target maintained at 2,500 rai and the majority of backlog awaiting delivery in 4Q26. Full-year net profit is estimated at Bt5.5bn, up 7.7% YoY. Short-term TP is Bt4.90.