Sideways due to external uncertainties

The SET is expected to swing sideways as the market eases concerns on the election ballot overhang and the flooding situation, a short-term event less severe than 2011. However, although oil prices and bond yields have eased slightly, they remain at elevated levels amid expectations of US-Iran negotiations with Qatar mediators in the near term, keeping the overall investment picture volatile from external factors. Key factor to monitor today is the Cabinet meeting. Technically, the index is swinging around 1600 points, still awaiting clear direction.

Today's highlights
• Gold prices declined 4% yesterday to a 7-week low after FedWatch Tool raised probability to 70.3% that the Fed will raise rates to 4.00–4.25%, pushing 10-year US Treasury yields to 5.26%, creating pressure on global risk assets. Positive view on insurance and bank stocks (BLA, TLI, BBL, KBANK, KTB).

• President Trump confirms seriously considering measures to ban US diesel exports to control domestic fuel prices before November midterm elections. Despite API warning of potential supply tightness, the market views this as accelerating higher diesel spreads in Asia, positive view on refinery stocks (TOP, SPRC).

• QatarEnergy extends force majeure announcement postponing LNG deliveries to European customers until early Dec and Asia until Nov 2026 following Strait of Hormuz tensions, supporting higher global and European gas prices, risking pressure on Thailand's pool gas costs. Negative view on power plant stocks (BGRIM, GPSC).

• Constitutional Court ruled that Feb 8, 2026, election ballots with barcode-QR codes are not unconstitutional, resulting in election not being voided, relieving political stability and government policymaking concerns. Positive view on contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCC) and industrial estates (AMATA, WHA).

• Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand last week reached 482,000, expanding 4% WoW from Mid-Autumn Festival and South Korea long holidays. TAT confirms major airports operating normally and key tourism destinations (Phuket, Krabi, Samui, Chiang Mai) unaffected by flooding, ready for China National Day (Oct 1-7). Positive view on tourism stocks (AOT, CENTEL, ERW, MINT).

Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely, with main pressure from external factors including the Fed's hawkish stance supporting sustained high bond yields and stalled US-Iran negotiations risking oil prices and inflation. Domestically, while facing near-term negative sentiment from flooding concerns (assessed as limited impact), the index is supported by political overhang resolution after the Constitutional Court rules the election not void, restoring stability confidence, along with expected buying from 3Q26 window dressing closure. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy".

Trading today
In the near term, the SET is expected to be volatile, pressured by the Fed's hawkish stance and stalled US-Iran negotiations risking oil prices and inflation. However, domestic factors provide support from political clarity (election not voided) and 3Q26 window dressing expectations, which are expected to offset flood concerns assessed as limited impact. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" emphasizing "Buy on Dip" through 4 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:

1. Political Relief & Infrastructure Play — Expected to respond positively after the Constitutional Court rules the election not void. Includes contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCC) and industrial estates (WHA, AMATA).

2. Flood Defensive & Recovery Plays — Benefit from flooding from emergency essential goods buying (CPALL, BJC, CRC) continuing to post-flood housing repair demand (HMPRO, GLOBAL) and construction materials (DCC).

3. Window Dressing Play — Expected to benefit from 3Q26 window dressing closure, focusing on SET50 stocks with lower price appreciation than market (%QTD Return below SET50) but solid fundamentals (DELTA, GULF, AOT, TRUE, CPN, BDMS, BH). Recommend setting exit points and watch for profit-taking in early October.

4. Tourism & Mega-Event Play — Expected to benefit from entering 4Q26 high tourism season supported by China's Golden Week (Oct 1-7) and global events like World Bank-IMF meetings (Oct), including tourism stocks (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and retail stocks (CPALL, CPN, CRC).

Daily Top Picks
ERW: Supported by an increasing number of foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand during holiday festivals, with the upcoming Chinese Golden Week and the tourism high season serving as key catalysts. RevPAR showed acceleration in Jul–Aug, rising 8% YoY, with normal profit expected to peak in 4Q26. Short-term TP is Bt3.80.

SPRC: Short-term catalyst from highly tight global refined product supply. Refineries in the Middle East and Russia remain damaged, while President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating prolonged geopolitical tensions. Refining margins are expected to remain elevated. Short-term TP is Bt15.00.