The SET is expected to move sideways within a range. US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields hit new highs in over 24 years, despite easing slightly. Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose after Chinese oil refineries suspended refined oil product exports for October. Foreign investors were net sellers of Thai equities for the eighth consecutive session, adding overall pressure to the market amid a lack of new catalysts. Investors are expected to focus on stock-specific opportunities with individual positive drivers. Today, monitor the US September Nonfarm Payrolls report. Technically, the index is seeing a weak rebound that lacks momentum, with no signs of a reversal yet.
Markets
Sideways, fund outflow still pressures
Today's highlights
• Brent surged 4.4% DoD to US$102.31/bbl after China suspended refined oil product exports for October to safeguard domestic reserves. This exacerbated concerns over a potential escalation in the US-Iran war after the US deployed additional troops and aircraft carriers to the Middle East. Positive for energy (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC), but negative for anti-oil plays (GPSC, BGRIM, AAV, THAI).
• The EPPO raised retail fuel prices by Bt0.75/litre, effective immediately (Oct 2), tracking the surge in Singapore refinery gate costs. Consequently, diesel rose to Bt42.19/litre. This new round of energy price increases will accelerate inflation and weigh on grassroots purchasing power. Negative for retail (CPALL, BJC, TNP) and consumer finance (MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR).
• The Prime Minister presided over the opening of Infineon's new Power Semiconductor manufacturing base, which is expected to expand employment to 1,000 jobs, reinforcing Thailand's status as a regional hub for advanced chips and electric vehicles under the "Made in Thailand" strategy. Long-term positive for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA) and electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE).
• THAI reported that over 90% of ground staff have returned to work, targeting a full resumption of 115 flights/day within 7 days. It also announced the normalization of Suvarnabhumi warehouse operations, easing concerns over air cargo export logistics. Short-term positive for THAI and electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE).
• The Data Center Board approved classifying data center operators into 5 categories based on electricity consumption and established the Category 9 electricity tariff structure. Long-term positive for clean energy (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, WHAUP) and industrial estates (WHA, AMATA).
Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to be volatile, pressured mainly by external factors including the Fed's hawkish stance keeping bond yields elevated and weighing on fund flows, alongside prolonged US-Iran negotiations posing upside risks to oil prices and inflation. Domestically, investment sentiment remains dampened by flood concerns which, while assessed to have limited economic impact, continue to act as a near-term Overhang on market sentiment. The investment strategy therefore recommends Selective Buy.
Trading today
The SET is expected to be volatile amid broad-based pressures. On the external front, the Fed's hawkish stance is keeping bond yields elevated, pressuring fund outflows, while US-Iran tensions risk pushing oil prices and inflation higher. Domestically, flood situation concerns continue to weigh on near-term investment sentiment. The investment strategy therefore recommends Selective Buy, focusing on Buy on Dip opportunities across 4 trading themes with specific positive catalysts:
1. Political Relief & Infrastructure Play, expected to respond positively following the Constitutional Court ruling that the election is not void, including Construction & Building Materials (STECON, CK, SCC) and Industrial Estates (WHA, AMATA).
2. Flood Defensive & Recovery Play, benefiting from the flood situation ranging from emergency stockpiling demand including Commerce (CPALL, BJC, CRC), through to post-flood residential repair demand including Commerce (HMPRO, GLOBAL) and Building Materials (DCC).
3. Domestic Play stocks with high resilience to external factors, driven primarily by domestic consumption, including Commerce (CPALL, CPN, CRC), Healthcare (BCH, PR9), and Telecommunications (TRUE).
4. Tourism & Mega-Event Play, expected to benefit from the 4Q26 tourism high season supported by catalysts including China's Golden Week (Oct 1–7) and the global World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings (October), including Tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and Retail (CPALL, CPN, CRC).
Daily Top Picks
HANA: Short-term catalyst from South Korea’s September exports hitting a new high, driven by chip exports, reflecting strong demand for AI investments. Additional support comes from the resumption of operations at Suvarnabhumi Airport’s cargo terminal. 3Q26 earnings are expected to recover strongly, with momentum continuing into 2027 from the start of AI-related product manufacturing. Short-term TP is Bt55.50.
SPRC: Short-term catalyst from Chinese refineries declaring an indefinite suspension of refined oil exports, worsening severe supply tightness across multiple regions, including India, the Middle East, Russia, and Europe. Meanwhile, reports of a third US aircraft carrier deployed to the Middle East have driven crude prices higher. Short-term TP is Bt14.40.