The SET is expected to move sideways-up, supported by easing oil prices following a recovery in global crude supply. While lower oil prices may exert near-term pressure on upstream energy stocks, they should prove positive for refiners and utilities. Meanwhile, electronics are expected to gain support from the rally in global tech stocks. However, upside momentum could face volatility from domestic factors, including the ongoing flood and continuous foreign net selling of over Bt37bn across ten consecutive trading sessions. Domestically today, monitor the Cabinet meeting, which is expected to consider additional relief measures. Technically, the index is seeing a weak rebound, keeping the recovery within a limited bound.
Markets
Upside capped amid fund outflow
Today's highlights
• Kpler reported Persian Gulf crude oil exports accelerated to 18.3mn bbl/day, exceeding pre-war levels as Saudi Arabia expanded multi-route shipments, while LNG exports hit a high since Feb. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco cut its OSP to Asia to a 6-year low. Short-term negative for upstream energy (PTTEP), but positive for refiners (TOP, SPRC, BCP) and SPP power plants (GPSC, BGRIM).
• Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand reached 522,532 last week (+8.2% WoW), supported by Golden Week and regional holidays. The Ministry of Transport signed an MOU with 6 partners, targeting early 2027 to pilot free short-tour packages for 6–8 hour transit passengers at 4 main airports (Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, Phuket, Krabi). Positive for tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT).
• ONWR warned of increased rainfall and flood risks across Thailand on Oct 5–7, 2026, as Chao Phraya Dam maintains discharge at 2,500 cu.m./sec. Once conditions ease, it is positive for building material retailers (HMPRO, GLOBAL).
• The Finance Minister stated Thailand ranks among top 5 relocation targets due to political neutrality, aiming to attract AI, chip, and PCB investments. SET is also pushing the "BOI to IPO" initiative to revitalize the stock market by 2027. Long-term positive for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA).
• The private power purchase resolution committee revealed that private firms agreed to reduce/cancel only 2–3% of over 400–500 contracts after a proposed tariff cut to Bt2.15/unit. Neutral for large power producers (GULF, BGRIM, GPSC).
Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to remain volatile due to lack of new supporting factors amid investment atmosphere pressured by multiple headwinds including the Fed's hawkish stance supporting bond yields at multi-year highs causing continued fund outflows, combined with elevated energy prices from prolonged geopolitical issues posing inflation risks. Domestically, overhang from flooding concerns remains, with preliminary impact on the economy assessed as limited, but caution warranted on sudden flooding risks from expected heavy rain Oct 5-7 and Oct 11-13, which could add downside risk to the economy and create negative market sentiment. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy".
Trading today
The SET is expected to remain volatile, lacking new supporting factors, pressured externally by the Fed's hawkish stance pushing bond yields higher causing fund outflows, and high energy prices from geopolitical issues increasing inflation risks. Domestically, overhang from monitoring new flooding waves which may add downside risk to the economy and dampen investment sentiment. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" emphasizing "Buy on Dip" through 3 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:
1. Domestic Play — Based primarily on domestic consumption with stable revenue streams and high resilience to external factors. Includes retail stocks (CPALL, CPN, CRC), healthcare stocks (BCH, PR9), and telecom stocks (TRUE).
2. Flood Defensive & Recovery Plays — Benefit from flooding starting with emergency essential goods buying (CPALL, BJC, CRC) continuing to post-flood housing repair demand (HMPRO, GLOBAL) and construction materials (DCC). Recommend avoiding or delaying investment in property/casualty insurance stocks that may face pressure from higher loss ratios.
3. Tourism & Mega-Event Play — Expected to benefit from entering 4Q26 high tourism season supported by China's Golden Week (Oct 1-7) and global events like World Bank-IMF meetings (Oct 12-18). Includes tourism stocks (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and retail stocks (CPALL, CPN, CRC).
Daily Top Picks
CPN: Short-term catalyst from expectations that weather conditions may be less severe than the previous week. 3Q26F normal profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, supported by a continuous increase in shopping mall foot traffic and tenant sales growth, along with upside potential from title transfers at Dusit Residences. Short-term TP is Bt63.00.
KKP: Catalyst from strong, jump-like growth in fee income via new S-curve initiatives from its subsidiary "Dime" and its commercial banking business. 3Q26F net profit is expected to grow 23% YoY—the strongest growth in the banking sector—reaching Bt2.06bn, driven by loan growth and non-NII. It offers a full-year dividend of Bt7.50/share or a 6.7% yield. Short-term TP is Bt116.00.