Range-bound, wait-and-see mode

Today's highlights
• Trump is considering cooperating with Saudi Arabia to retaliate against the Houthi after a strike on Riyadh airport, escalating geopolitical tensions and pushing energy prices higher, which short-term weighs on risk assets while benefiting upstream energy stocks (PTTEP).

• Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire, and Trump reached a deal with Putin to export of 4 million tons (~30 million barrels) of diesel to the US and global markets, with an immediate release of 300,000 tons followed by 500,000 tons in Nov and 1 million tons subsequently, short-term weighing on refiners (TOP, SPRC, BCP).

• The Finance Minister is set to address the WorldBank-IMF meetings, with estimated attendance of over 15,000 senior participants spending of Bt10,000–15,000 per day, generating Bt1.05–2.25bn in economic activity, short-term positive sentiment for tourism (AOT, CENTEL, ERW) and retail (CRC, CPN) and positive sentiment for industrial estates (AMATA, WHA).

• Cross-border travel during China's National Day golden week holiday (Oct 1–7) reached 15.46 million trips (+67% YoY), including 4.44 million outbound trips (+9.3% YoY), with Thailand remaining one of the top preferred destinations, benefiting tourism stocks (ERW, CENTEL, AOT).

• The SET is set to implement eight new trading rules effective Nov 16, 2026, featuring tick size reductions for stocks priced at Bt5–50, high OTR order management, revised short-sale criteria, a Zero-Plus Tick rule, and an Uptick rule triggered on a 10% stock price drop, alongside the removal of DPB and MRT requirements. Long-term positive for stocks trading between Bt5 and Bt50.

Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to trade in a narrow range, lacking fresh catalysts and with a reduced number of trading days (holidays on Oct 13 and 16). The market is nonetheless expected to shift its focus to 3Q26 earnings announcements from listed companies, led by the banking sector which will begin reporting from Oct 14–21, alongside flood damage assessments. External headwinds from elevated crude oil prices and bond yields persist. A key factor to watch is the US September CPI reading (Oct 14) — a softer print would help ease concerns over the Fed’s policy rate direction and support a recovery in global equity market sentiment. The investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy”.

Trading today
The SET is expected to trade in a narrow range, lacking fresh catalysts and with a reduced number of trading days. The market is expected to turn its attention to 3Q26 earnings announcements — led by the banking sector — and flood damage assessments, while also monitoring the US September CPI reading (Oct 14), against a backdrop of elevated crude oil prices and bond yields. Our investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy” with an emphasis on “Buy on Dip” across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:

1. Earnings plays — Stocks expected to deliver strong 3Q26 earnings growth with Outperform ratings: YoY growth picks include KKP, DELTA, PTTEP, TRUE; and QoQ growth picks include KTB, BBL, TU.

2. Domestic plays — Stocks with stable revenue streams, resilient to external volatility through their reliance on the domestic economy: commerce (CPN, CRC), healthcare (BCH, PR9), and telecommunications (TRUE).

3. Post-flood recovery plays — Stocks set to benefit directly from demand for construction materials and home improvement products as floodwaters recede, alongside clarity on government relief and rehabilitation measures: home improvement retail (HMPRO, GLOBAL) and construction materials (DCC).

4. Tourism & mega-event plays — Stocks expected to benefit from the onset of the 4Q26 tourism high season, combined with a near-term boost from the large number of attendees at the IMF-World Bank meetings (Oct 12–18): tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and retail (CPN, CRC).

Daily Top Picks
CENTEL: Catalyst from entering the World Bank–IMF meetings and the tourism high season. RevPAR in 3Q26 is expected to grow 3–5% YoY and accelerate further in 4Q26F, while advance hotel bookings for October 2026 exceed the same period last year. Full-year 2026F profit is projected at Bt3.3bn (+18% YoY). Short-term TP is Bt44.25.

GPSC: Short-term catalyst from a downward trend in energy prices following President Trump's announcement that Russia and Ukraine reached an energy truce, along with expectations regarding the conclusion of Data Center criteria and PDP2026. 3Q26F performance is expected to grow YoY with upside potential from the IPO of Avaada Energy. Short-term TP is Bt51.50.