The SET is expected to move downward in line with regional markets. Electronic stocks are expected to come under pressure following global tech shares, which plunged sharply on growing concerns that the Fed will raise interest rates at its meeting late this month after US CPI figures came in higher than expected. Oil prices also remain at high levels amid severe strikes in the Middle East, while the IEA warned of a tight diesel supply. Furthermore, with the Thai stock market closed tomorrow, investors may engage in selling to reduce risk. Technically, the index has failed to break above its 75-day moving average, showing no clear signs of a recovery yet.
Markets
Lower, worried the Fed’s rate hike
Today's highlights
• Sep CPI and Core CPI increased 3.7%YoY and 2.6%YoY, respectively, exceeding market expectations due to broad-based price increases, driving the FedWatch Tool to price in a 53.7% probability of a Fed rate hike in Oct (up from 22.1%), while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.33%, negatively on risk assets, particularly finance stocks (MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR).
• The IEA reported that Middle Eastern and Russian diesel exports dropped significantly by 1.3 million bpd YoY and estimated tight supply conditions will persist through 2H27, while emergency reserve release quotas are down to just 96 million barrels (out of 427 million), positive sentiment for refiners (SPRC, TOP, BCP).
• The Finance Minister and BOT Governor, alongside the IMF and World Bank, announced the "Bangkok Blueprint" to counter borderless digital financial fraud causing up to $1 trillion in annual damages, alongside the Safe Innovative Digital Finance (SIDF) framework to upgrade cybersecurity standards in the banking system, offering positive sentiment for banks (KBANK, BBL, KTB).
• The Ministry of Finance is driving the Bt50bn housing loan project supporting mortgages up to Bt3mn per person with fixed starting interest rates of 2.6% for 2-year periods and maximum tenors of 40 years, estimated to generate Bt125bn in economic activity, benefiting real estate stocks (SPALI, AP, SIRI).
• Japan is expanding investments in Thailand, pivoting from automotive manufacturing bases into advanced technology industries, while the government accelerates domestic supply chain integration and promotes the "BOI to IPO" to attract to list on the SET, providing long-term positive sentiment for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA) and electronic (DELTA, HANA, KCE).
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to trade in a narrow range, lacking fresh catalysts and with a reduced number of trading days (holidays on Oct 13 and 16). The market is nonetheless expected to shift its focus to 3Q26 earnings announcements from listed companies, led by the banking sector which will begin reporting from Oct 14–21, alongside flood damage assessments. External headwinds from elevated crude oil prices and bond yields persist. A key factor to watch is the US September CPI reading (Oct 14) — a softer print would help ease concerns over the Fed’s policy rate direction and support a recovery in global equity market sentiment. The investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy”.
Trading today
The SET is expected to trade in a narrow range, lacking fresh catalysts and with a reduced number of trading days. The market is expected to turn its attention to 3Q26 earnings announcements — led by the banking sector — and flood damage assessments, while also monitoring the US September CPI reading (Oct 14), against a backdrop of elevated crude oil prices and bond yields. Our investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy” with an emphasis on “Buy on Dip” across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Earnings plays — Stocks expected to deliver strong 3Q26 earnings growth with Outperform ratings: YoY growth picks include KKP, DELTA, PTTEP, TRUE; and QoQ growth picks include KTB, BBL, TU.
2. Domestic plays — Stocks with stable revenue streams, resilient to external volatility through their reliance on the domestic economy: commerce (CPN, CRC), healthcare (BCH, PR9), and telecommunications (TRUE).
3. Post-flood recovery plays — Stocks set to benefit directly from demand for construction materials and home improvement products as floodwaters recede, alongside clarity on government relief and rehabilitation measures: home improvement retail (HMPRO, GLOBAL) and construction materials (DCC).
4. Tourism & mega-event plays — Stocks expected to benefit from the onset of the 4Q26 tourism high season, combined with a near-term boost from the large number of attendees at the IMF-World Bank meetings (Oct 12–18): tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and retail (CPN, CRC).
Daily Top Picks
CRC: Catalyst from accelerating SSS in September to 4% compared to 1.5% in July–August, with 3Q26F SSS expected to post standout growth within the retail sector, while facing limited impact from floods. 3Q26F profit is projected to post strong growth supported by SSS, expanding margins, and the baht's depreciation boosting revenue in Vietnam. Short-term TP is Bt32.50.
SPRC: Short-term catalyst from tight refined product supply conditions that could persist through 2H27. Middle Eastern and Russian diesel exports in September 2026 dropped significantly by 1.3 million barrels per day YoY, while Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices for crude oil to Asia in November 2026 to a six-year low. Short-term TP is Bt16.50.