The SET is expected to trade within a narrow range. The market lacks fresh supporting catalysts, while crude oil prices remain volatile, climbing after Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure but paring gains on expectations of higher Russian oil exports. As a result, investors are expected to remain selective on stocks with individual growth catalysts. Today's releases of corporate earnings from several banking and financial institutions may spark selective speculative trading. Key events to monitor today include the Cabinet meeting, which is expected to consider expanding the budget for flood relief measures. Technically, the index continues to struggle below its upper resistance boundary, keeping the recovery limited.
Markets
No new catalyst
Today's highlights
• The government plans to propose raising excise taxes on imported EV from 10% to at least 30%, effective Jan 1, 2027. Meanwhile, the BMTA prepares an 800 EV bus auction worth Bt8.4bn with a 40% local content rule, matching the BOI's approval of Toyota's Bt1.49bn investment for hydrogen Hilux FCEV production at Ban Pho, offering long-term positive sentiment for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA) and automotive stocks (AH, SAT, STANLY).
• The Netherlands' Minister for Foreign Trade supports concluding a Thailand-EU FTA within 2026, benefiting canned tuna, rice, and chicken exports. With Brazil reporting a Newcastle disease outbreak, risking China export disruptions like 2024. Positive for food exporters (TU, GFPT).
• The ONWR warned eastern reservoir water levels have reached 89% amid heavy rain alerts, posing short-term risks for industrial estates (AMATA, WHA). However, the government plans over Bt10bn in 2027 flood relief budget expansions, offering positive sentiment for construction material retailers (GLOBAL, HMPRO).
• The MRTA unveiled a 4-route rail expansion plan covering 64.8 km: the Brown Line Monorail (Khae Rai–Lam Sali, Bt41.7bn), Grey Line Monorail Phase 1 (Watcharaphon–Thong Lo, Bt29bn), Silver Line Light Rail (Bang Na–Suvarnabhumi, Bt89bn), and Blue Line (Din Daeng–Sathorn, Bt14.7bn), with the Brown Line slated for 2028 Cabinet submission, offering long-term positive sentiment for contractors and rail operators (CK, STECON, BEM, BTS).
• Foreign tourist arrivals last week reached 487,410, up 0.8% WoW from European long-term market growth entering winter, offsetting Golden Week post-holiday slowdowns and offering positive sentiment for tourism stocks (CENTEL, ERW, AOT).
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to continue trading sideways, as the market lacks significant fresh catalysts. On the domestic front, attention is focused on the rolling release of 3Q26 earnings from the banking sector, with the market zeroing in on net interest margin (NIM) trends, loan loss provisioning, and NPL management. On the external front, bond yields and US economic data warrant close monitoring to gauge the Fed’s rate policy direction at its October meeting, while ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to pressure oil prices and cap the upside for risk assets. The investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy”.
Trading today
We view the SET as likely to trade sideways, lacking fresh catalysts. On the domestic front, attention remains on 3Q26 banking sector earnings, while externally, US bond yields and economic data warrant close monitoring to gauge the Fed’s rate direction at its October meeting, with ongoing Middle East tensions continuing to pressure oil prices and cap the upside for risk assets. Our investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy” with an emphasis on “Buy on Dip” across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Earnings momentum plays — Stocks expected to report strong 3Q26 earnings growth over the next two weeks with Outperform ratings: YoY growth picks include KKP, DELTA, PTTEP, GLOBAL, SCGP; and QoQ growth picks include KTB, BBL.
2. FDI & new economy plays — Stocks expected to benefit structurally from Thailand’s hosting of the IMF-World Bank meetings, which showcased the country’s potential to attract FDI, alongside the government’s New Economy policy drive: digital banking (KBANK, KTB, BBL), industrial estates (WHA, AMATA), electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE), clean energy (GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL), and technology & cybersecurity (TRUE, SECURE).
3. Defensive domestic plays — Stocks tied to domestic consumption with stable revenue streams and resilience to external volatility: retail (CPN, CRC), including post-flood construction material retail (HMPRO, GLOBAL), healthcare (BCH, PR9), and telecommunications (TRUE).
4. High-season tourism & flood relief plays — Stocks set to benefit from easing flood concerns as the situation passes its peak and Thailand enters the 4Q26 tourism high season: tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and retail (CPN, CRC).
Daily Top Picks
CENTEL: Catalyst from the continuous influx of international tourist arrivals into Thailand, particularly long-haul travelers. RevPAR in 3Q26 is expected to grow 3–5% YoY and accelerate further in 4Q26F, while advance hotel bookings for October 2026 are higher than the same period last year. 2026F net profit is projected at Bt3.3bn (+18% YoY). Short-term TP is Bt43.75.
HANA: Short-term catalyst from the recovery momentum of global tech stocks. 3Q26F earnings are expected to post a standout recovery driven by the initial production of AI-related products, such as high-margin Solid-State Cooling Devices and High-Density PCBA, with net profit projected to grow continuously over the next 2–3 years. Short-term TP is Bt51.50.