The SET is expected to stage a rebound in line with regional markets. Meanwhile, crude oil prices experience sharp volatility: despite signals from Iran of peace talks, Middle East tensions have escalated as the Houthis intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia and reports emerge of vessel strikes in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, US Treasury yields have rebounded, capping the index's recovery upside. Today marks the release of earnings reports from several banking institutions, requiring caution regarding potential volatility. Technically, the index has declined to test its previous base support level; if it holds, a short-term rebound may be observed.
Markets
Limited recovery, volatility still high
Today's highlights
• European TTF natural gas and North Asian LNG prices hit nearly 4-year highs due to concerns over Middle Eastern transport disruptions, amid European gas storage hitting a 5-year low ahead of winter. Negative for SPP power producers (GPSC, BGRIM), but positive for BCP from the OKEA gas field in Norway.
• The OFFO resolved to raise retail gasoline and diesel prices by Bt0.60/litre to support the fund's liquidity position following rising global oil prices, pushing retail diesel prices to Bt43.54/litre, which will drive up inflation and living costs while reducing household debt-servicing capacity. This is negative for finance stocks (MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR).
• The Cabinet approved tax relief measures for flood victims, allowing deductions of up to Bt100,000 for home repairs and up to Bt30,000 for vehicle repairs, alongside low-interest loan measures to support recovery efforts across various sectors, providing positive sentiment for construction material retailers (HMPRO, GLOBAL).
• The Social Security Sub-committee proposed a 3.7% hike in the per capita capitation fee to Bt1,875/person (lower than the market's 10% expectation) while maintaining the chronic disease disbursement rate, and will submit it to the Medical Board for consideration ahead of implementation in 2027. This serves as a short-term negative sentiment for healthcare stocks with social security exposure (BCH, CHG).
• South Korea's export value for the first 20 days of October 2026 surged 105.4% YoY, reflecting robust chip demand amid the ongoing global tech sell-off. This acts as a short-term positive sentiment for electronic components (HANA, DELTA, KCE).
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to continue trading sideways, as the market lacks significant fresh catalysts. On the domestic front, attention is focused on the rolling release of 3Q26 earnings from the banking sector, with the market zeroing in on net interest margin (NIM) trends, loan loss provisioning, and NPL management. On the external front, bond yields and US economic data warrant close monitoring to gauge the Fed’s rate policy direction at its October meeting, while ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to pressure oil prices and cap the upside for risk assets. The investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy”.
Trading today
We view the SET as likely to trade sideways, lacking fresh catalysts. On the domestic front, attention remains on 3Q26 banking sector earnings, while externally, US bond yields and economic data warrant close monitoring to gauge the Fed’s rate direction at its October meeting, with ongoing Middle East tensions continuing to pressure oil prices and cap the upside for risk assets. Our investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy” with an emphasis on “Buy on Dip” across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Earnings momentum plays — Stocks expected to report strong 3Q26 earnings growth over the next two weeks with Outperform ratings: YoY growth picks include KKP, DELTA, PTTEP, GLOBAL, SCGP; and QoQ growth picks include KTB, BBL.
2. FDI & new economy plays — Stocks expected to benefit structurally from Thailand’s hosting of the IMF-World Bank meetings, which showcased the country’s potential to attract FDI, alongside the government’s New Economy policy drive: digital banking (KBANK, KTB, BBL), industrial estates (WHA, AMATA), electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE), clean energy (GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL), and technology & cybersecurity (TRUE, SECURE).
3. Defensive domestic plays — Stocks tied to domestic consumption with stable revenue streams and resilience to external volatility: retail (CPN, CRC), including post-flood construction material retail (HMPRO, GLOBAL), healthcare (BCH, PR9), and telecommunications (TRUE).
4. High-season tourism & flood relief plays — Stocks set to benefit from easing flood concerns as the situation passes its peak and Thailand enters the 4Q26 tourism high season: tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and retail (CPN, CRC).
Daily Top Picks
GULF: Short-term catalyst from declining government bond yields. The company has continuous business expansion plans through capacity increases and future opportunities aligned with Data Center growth, PDP2026, and Direct PPA measures. 2026F core profit is projected at Bt38bn, representing growth of 33% YoY. Short-term TP is Bt62.50.
HANA: Catalyst from South Korea's export growth for the first 20 days of October continuing at 105%, reflecting robust demand within the AI supply chain. 3Q26F earnings are expected to post a standout recovery driven by the initial production of high-margin AI-related products, with net profit projected to grow continuously over the next 2–3 years. Short-term TP is Bt50.25.