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Telecom – A well-played call reaches its target (Presentation)

Telecom – A well-played call reaches its target (Presentation)

Turns NEUTRAL as the re-rating call plays out

Sector: NEUTRAL (from OVERWEIGHT)
ADVANC and TRUE shares have been rising by 65% and 152% since 2024, outperforming SET by 53% and 140%. With valuations now close to regional peers, we believe further multiple expansion is limited — performance from here should be driven by earnings delivery, not re-rating.

Top pick: TRUE — OUTPERFORM
Mid-2027F DCF-based TP of Bt18.5 (8.5% WACC, 1.5% LTG). TRUE's valuation remains attractive versus regional peers, with earnings growth still ahead of the pack — now our top sector pick.

Non-consensus: NEUTRAL ADVANC
Mid-2027F DCF-based TP of Bt415 (6.1% WACC, 1.5% LTG). ADVANC now trades broadly in line with regional peers; we see limited further upside from current valuation levels.

Why the call is changing now

  • Sector earnings growth set to decelerate from 3Q26F as spectrum-cost and merger-synergy tailwinds fade — core profit growth of 12.5% YoY forecast for 2H26F vs 34.5% YoY in 1H26
  • Valuations now close to regional peers, we believe further multiple expansion is limited
  • Key risks: a weak economic recovery would pressure mobile/FBB revenue growth; cybersecurity and data-privacy are the sector's key ESG risks