Fare cut is positive for the sector, but we would consider this an upside.
Policy: Bt17-45 from 1 Jan 2027
Fares are capped at Bt45 a trip and the entry fee is paid only once. Most lines already charge within Bt17-45, so the savings go to passengers who change lines and BTS extension riders.
Additional ridership: +3.5% in our base case
About two-thirds of daily entries are on trips that get cheaper, by 27% on average. With half the response seen in the Jan 2025 free travel week, ridership rises 3.5%.
Earnings: +1.3-2.8% in 2027F
If the state takes half the upside: BEM +1.3%, BTSGIF +2.8%, BTS loss narrows 8.5%. Bull case (+7% ridership, no sharing): BEM +5.3%, BTSGIF +11.3%, BTS loss narrows 33.8%.