In line with expectations, TTB’s 3Q26 results reflected stable asset quality, modest QoQ loan growth, better NIM, and weaker non-NII. We expect 4Q26F earnings to be flattish QoQ and slightly up YoY (on higher NII). We expect 2027F earnings to fall 5%, mainly due to the depletion of tax benefits. We expect TTB to raise DPS by Bt0.05 to Bt0.184 in 2026 (a 75% payout ratio) from Bt0.134 in 2025, offering a dividend yield of 6.8%. We maintain a Neutral rating with an unchanged mid-2027 TP of Bt2.7.
Research
TTB – 3Q26: In line
3Q26: In line. TTB reported a 3Q26 net profit of Bt5.46bn (-1% QoQ, +3% YoY), in line with INVX and consensus forecasts. Highlights are summarized below.
1) Asset quality: NPL ratio slipped 3 bps QoQ. Credit cost inched up 1 bp QoQ (+5 bps YoY) to 1.37%, with an addition of a management overlay worth Bt0.6bn (vs. Bt1.1bn in 2Q26), which included potential impact from the flood. LLR coverage rose to 159% from 157% in 2Q26.
2) Loan growth: +0.3% QoQ (-0.9% YoY, -1.5% YTD), mainly driven by large corporate loans and high-yield products, including Cash Your Home (CYH), Cash Your Book (CYB), credit card, and personal loans.
3) NIM: +10 bps QoQ (+12 bps YoY). Yield on earning assets rose 6 bps QoQ (-16 bps YoY). Cost of funds came down 4 bps QoQ (-34 bps YoY).
4) Non-NII: -21% QoQ (+2% YoY), primarily due to the absence of 2Q26 one-off items such as FVTPL gains from the Vayupak 1 fund, as well as a seasonal fall in dividend income. Net fee income fell 7% QoQ (+12% YoY) as wealth management fees began to normalize following stronger-than-usual customer portfolio reallocation activity in 2Q26.
5) Cost to income ratio: -100 bps QoQ (+23 bps YoY) to 45.81%. Opex decreased 5% QoQ (+3% YoY), due to an absence of one-off expenses.
6) Tax benefit: TTB realized a tax benefit of Bt393mn in 3Q26. It has a remaining tax benefit of Bt2bn, which is expected to be used up in 1Q27.
Earnings outlook. 9M26 earnings accounted for 75% of our full-year forecast. We expect 2026F earnings to grow 4%, underpinned by muted loan growth, flattish NIM, stable credit cost, and a 27% rise in non-NII. We expect 4Q26F earnings to be flattish QoQ and slightly up YoY (on higher NII). We expect 2027F earnings to fall 5%, mainly due to the depletion of tax benefits.
Expect higher DPS. TTB is considering using its unused budget of Bt14bn to pay dividends (though not an extra dividend) and support growth opportunities. We expect TTB to raise DPS by Bt0.05 to Bt0.184 in 2026 (a 75% payout ratio) from Bt0.134 for 2025, offering a dividend yield of 6.8%.
Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged TP. We maintain NEUTRAL rating with an unchanged TP of Bt2.7 (based on DDM), backed by a decent dividend yield.
Key risks: 1) Asset quality risk from economic slowdown, 2) credit cost risk from lower used-car prices, 3) NIM risk from a policy rate cut, 4) cybersecurity risk, and 5) ESG risk from market conduct.