We expect no major pushback on the draft PDP2026 during the public hearing session. As a result, we anticipate NEPC and Cabinet approval by late 2026, serving as a major near-term re-rating catalyst for Thai utilities. Phase 1 (2026-2037) unlocks a 45% sector-wide earnings upside over 2027 forecasts, led by BGRIM (83%), GPSC (76%), and GUNKUL (61%). Robust balance sheets provide massive investment headroom. GULF remains our sector top pick for capturing large-scale capacity expansions with its wide debt headroom. GUNKUL serves as the preferred wildcard play for securing high-visibility EPC revenues from grid modernization. GPSC and BGRIM round out our recommendations as second-choice picks offering strong medium-to-long-term upside.
Research
Utilities – PDP2026 is on track, Expect no pushback
Expect no major pushback from PDP2026's public hearing session. Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) held a public hearing for the draft Power Development Plan (PDP2026) on Tuesday, September 8, 2026. Overall, we expect no major pushback during the public hearing session. As a result, we expect PDP2026 to be approved by the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) by October 2026 and by the Cabinet by the end of 2026 as planned.
The potential earnings upside from PDP2026 Phase 1 (2026-2037). Total anticipated growth representing around 45% compared to 2027 forecasts. Sector-wide, BGRIM and GPSC lead with the highest potential earnings upside relative to their 2027 forecasts at approximately 83% and 76%, respectively, while GUNKUL anticipates an upside of around 61% and WHAUP expects about 39%. Meanwhile, the market leader GULF is projected to capture an earnings boost equivalent to roughly 37% of its 2027 forecasts, legacy thermal players RATCH and EGCO stand at around 43% and 34%, and BCPG records a more modest upside near 1%.
Utilities sector capital adequacy and CAPEX potential. Large-cap utilities enter PDP2026 with robust balance sheets and massive investment capacity, led by GULF's substantial Bt729bn CAPEX potential at a 1.4x net D/E and GPSC's Bt179bn headroom at 0.8x net D/E, alongside legacy players EGCO (Bt131bn) and RATCH (Bt130bn). Meanwhile, mid-cap player GUNKUL retains flexible funding capacity of Bt32bn, BCPG stands at Bt61bn (pending asset recycling), and WHAUP holds Bt17bn, whereas BGRIM faces tighter financial constraints with a restricted CAPEX potential of Bt31bn due to its elevated 2.1x net D/E.
Action and recommendation. The short term is viewed as a re-rating catalyst driven by historical outperformance following PDP announcements, while long-term award upside from PDP2026 remains overlooked. GULF remains our top pick, with aggressively capturing market share in the massive capacity expansions outlined in PDP2026 without straining its balance sheet. GUNKUL remained our wildcard pick to capture high-visibility EPC revenues from national grid modernization and renewable energy expansions along with upcoming PDP2026. Second-choice picks are GPSC and BGRIM, despite both SPP operations will facing a short-term hit on the higher gas cost but both stocks offer medium to long-term earnings upside from the upcoming new PDP2026.
Key risks: Higher than expected gas cost. Key ESG risks are the environmental impact from exposure to fossil fuels, energy management, high greenhouse gas emissions and nearby community impact.