XPG – 2Q26: Solid and above estimated earnings

XPG’s 2Q26 net profit of Bt59.4mn (up 124% YoY and 18% QoQ), on robust interest and fee income. XPG maintained 2026 growth targets across all units, prioritizing selective lending, AMC debt collection, and digital asset offering. 3Q26’s catalyst includes the SPCG tender offer financing facility, boosting interest and fee revenues. Our FY26 net profit forecast of Bt201mn (+11% YoY) on total revenue of Bt1.08bn (+9% YoY), driven by loan expansion and KTX contributions. We maintain our Outperform rating with a mid-2027 target price of Bt0.91/share, on a target PBV of 1.1x, based on the peer average PBV assumption with a 30% discount to reflect its lower ROE relative to peers.

XPG reported strong net profit growth of 124% YoY and 18% QoQ, driven by fee income and share of profit from associates. XPG reported total revenue for 2Q26 at Bt226mn, up 12.6% YoY and 8.7% QoQ. The primary revenue driver remained interest income, accounting for 62% of total revenue; while it decreased 15% YoY, it grew 11% QoQ. Fee income saw strong growth, up 41% YoY and 4% QoQ. Investment gains turned around from a loss in 2Q25, though softening slightly by 7% QoQ. Share of profit from KTX, despite declining 7% QoQ, also reversed from a loss in 2Q25. Consequently, sustained revenue growth combined with effective cost management drove robust net profit of Bt59.4mn, soaring 123.8% YoY and 17.8% QoQ. For 1H26, XPG posted total revenue of Bt434mn, down 4.8% YoY, with net profit reaching Bt110mn, up 22.7% YoY.

Maintain 2026’s target, driven by loans and interest. XPG maintains its growth targets across all business units for 2H26, expecting accelerated growth driven by strong performance in its lending, asset management, and AMC businesses. Overall strategies include: XSpring — Shift portfolio toward income-generating low-risk assets and maintaining high selectivity for new investments, which includes exploring lending and new investment opportunities aligned with market conditions. Krungthai XSpring (KTX) Expand structured note distribution alongside fee income from selling agent activities and debenture underwriting. XSpring AMC — Accelerate asset sales and debt collection via direct sales, debt restructuring, and flexible agreements, then close pending deals while pursuing debt compromise and repurchases. XSpring AM — Launch products that align with current market conditions and expand thematic and alternative investment funds. XSpring Digital — Assess market conditions for digital token issuance while managing costs and liquidity.

Maintain FY26 forecast with expected growth of 11% YoY: We maintain XPG’s FY26 revenue forecast at Bt1.08bn (+9% YoY), aligned with company targets. Interest income remains the key driver at 60% of total revenue (+7% YoY). Profit share from associate KTX is projected to grow, while fee and service income should stay flat, bringing forecasted net profit to Bt201mn (+11% YoY). In 3Q26, interest income will continue driving performance with strong YoY and QoQ growth from loan expansion. Fund fees, trading revenue, and KTX profit share remain solid. XPG provided a financing facility for the SPCG tender offer ending in 3Q26, generating both fee and interest income.

Key risks: higher expected credit losses (ECL), potential future regulatory and legal changes regarding Digital Assets. ESG key risk. XPG holds no SET ESG Rating.