ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240301_T Recovery is limited |
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Market today | The SET continued to decline and generated a negative technical indicator. Although the market may benefit from positive sentiment in US markets today as the PCE in Jan came in line, SET recovery is seen to be limited at resistance of 1380 and 1390; the next supports are 1360 and the previous low of 1353. | Today’s highlights | • The PCE index in Jan rose 2.4%YoY and 0.3%MoM, while core PCE index rose 2.8%YoY and 0.4%MoM, in line with market expectations and the smallest YoY increase in three years. The Fed is expected to cut interest rate by mid-year. Initial jobless claims increased to 215,000 last week, higher than the 210,000 expected.
• The BoT said more than three institutions have expressed interest in obtaining licenses for branchless banking. Criteria for business operations are expected to be announced in March, with a nine-month application review period. License recipients will be announced by mid-2025.
• The PM emphasized the urgent need for large-scale infrastructure investment over the next 20 years to propel Thailand into the top five global economies. Progress is being made in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) project, high-speed rail connecting Bangkok to Nong Khai and links between Laos and China.
• The BoT has an overall positive outlook in Jan, driven by better-than-expected exports and tourism, improved private sector investment, and stable domestic consumption. Attention is focused on industrial production, which remains sluggish due to slow global recovery.
• The Trade Policy and Strategy Office is reporting strong growth of Thailand's online market, ranking second in ASEAN. Next year, the market is expected to exceed Bt1.8tn in value, led by Lazada and Shopee. TikTok is also popular among the entertainment-loving younger population.
• The SEC is preparing to propose revisions to mutual fund criteria for Bitcoin ETF investments at its March board meeting. They will consider appropriate strategies without overlapping regulations. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai capital market remains range-bound, though there may be some support from strong US economic figures, recovery in China’s economy, less pressure from short-selling and a return of fund flows. Domestically, the market is entering the last phase of 4Q23 earnings releases, which are expected to be weak. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound as we enter the final days of 4Q23 earnings reports, but fund flows are expected to support the investment climate. We recommend “Selective Buy” in three main themes:
1) Stocks that benefit from the steady recovery of tourism with more foreign tourists, but which is not yet reflected in stock prices – AOT and MINT.
2) Speculative stocks if the SET can get above 1400, where buybacks are expected to cover short positions plus a return of fund flows, in stocks where fundamentals remain strong – AOT, KBANK, KTB and PTT.
3) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as now would be good timing since the SET has fallen significantly, risk is low and stocks are undervalued – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC, all of which are in SET100 and are leaders in their industries with ESG ratings of AAA and AA, valuation lower than 10-year historical average and strong operating results. | Daily top picks | CRC: Stock price has declined 15%YTD, already factoring in a weaker profit than expected in 4Q23. 1Q24TD same store sales are expected to have grown 2%YoY, recovering from -2.4%YoY in 4Q23, backed by growth in SSS in Vietnam and in SSS in Italy. 2024 core profit is expected to grow 14%.
AOT: Profit is expected to return to an upward trend. 2QFY24 core profit (Jan-Mar 2024) is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, supported by high season for Thai tourism with an additional boost from the visa-free travel between Thailand and China from Mar 1, 2024. FY2024 core profit is expected to jump to Bt23bn, underwritten by recovery in the tourism industry. | Today’s reports | AH – 4Q23: Beat on extra items.
BGRIM – 4Q23: Profit up QoQ despite FX losses
LH – 4Q23: Beats estimates with better margin | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240301_E |
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