ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240705_T Still moving back up
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Market today | The SET stood above 1300 again and generated a positive indicator, driven by speculation on bank 2Q24 operating results. The index is expected to continue moving up. Resistances are at 1310 and 1325, while supports are between 1280-1290. | Today’s highlights | • A UK exit poll indicates that in the parliamentary election, the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer is likely to win 410 seats, securing a majority in Parliament, while the Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak, which has been in power for 14 years, is expected to win only 131 seats.
• A Reuters survey reports that 1 in 3 Democratic supporters believe President Biden should withdraw from being the Democratic nominee for the US presidential election.
• The Israeli Prime Minister has approved sending a delegation to participate in discussions for a ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages from Hamas.
• The BoT expects the Thai economy to grow around 3% annually from 2023-2028, which is the current estimate, saying it will be difficult to return to 4-5% growth, as Thailand's economy is recovering slower than other countries and structural changes are needed rather than economic stimulation.
• The Department of Energy Business reports that average fuel consumption in the first 5 months of 2024 was 157.13mn liters/day, down 0.4%YoY. This decrease is due to reductions in fuel oil (21.6%), NGV gas (16.6%), and gasoline (1.0%). | Strategy today | In the short term, the SET is still fragile and range-bound as it waits for clarification of domestic politics. There are also issues from overseas: China, EU and US manufacturing and services PMI in June, which are expected to range from stable to up slightly from last month. Our strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Thai capital market is seen to still be fragile and range-bound while waiting for some political clarity and a new catalyst. We recommend "Selective Buy" with four main themes:
1) Stocks expected to benefit from short covering after the SET implements the uptick rule on July 1 and which also have SETESG ratings between AAA to A - HANA, TOP, BEM, MINT, OSP, BBL, SCGP and AOT.
2) Stocks expected to benefit from changes in conditions for the ThaiESG fund: raising deductions to up to Bt300,000 and reducing the holding period to five years - ADVANC, CPALL, BDMS, BBL and BEM.
3) Global plays whose profit is expected to grow and which benefit from global economic recovery over domestic plays, which face multiple uncertainties - KCE, SCGP, TU and MINT. (We recommend buy KCE and SCGP on price dips upon pressure from weak Chinese economic figures).
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock - PTTEP. | Daily top picks | CPALL: 2Q24 core profit and same-store sales are expected to grow YoY, outdoing peers in the Commerce sector. It is seen to be undervalued, currently trading at 2024F PER of 21.6x, -2S.D. of 10-year historical PER, which is opposite to the direction of core profit, which is expected to grow 28% in 2024 from higher sales and lower financial expense.
GULF: 2Q24 core profit is expected to reach a record high and continue growing for the rest of the year, supported by higher capacity. A positive is another two power plant auctions scheduled to take place soon. Valuation is attractive, presently trading at PER of 23x or -1.5 S.D. of its average. Recommend buy at not higher than Bt40.25/share. | Today’s reports | TU – Preview 2Q24F: Core earnings edging up YoY | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240705_E |
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