กลุ่มพลังงาน – โรงกลั่นน้ำมันจะเผชิญกับต้นทุนค่าระวางที่สูงขึ้น
กลุ่มท่องเที่ยว – ภาพรวม 2H66 เป็นบวก
AAV – ปัจจัยบวกเปิดโอกาสให้ trading ระยะสั้น ปรับเรทติ้งขึ้นสู่ NEUTRAL Hope for recover back to support |
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Market today | The SET has rested for three days, down by 30 points, while the short-term technical indicator suggest it is oversold and likely to recover. Technical supports are at 1,540 and 1,535 with resistance at 1,560; if there is a clear recovery, the next resistance is 1,570. | Today’s highlights | • Moody’s raised its 2023 US GDP forecast to 1.9% from 1.1% as the economy is likely to be stronger, but cut China’s 2023 GDP forecast to 4.0% from 4.5% as recovery is seen as weak.
• China’s Premier, Li Qiang, will join the 18th G20 meeting in New Delhi, India, on Sep 9-10 instead of Xi Jinping.
• China has approved setting up a special bureau under NDRC to boost the private sector.
• Home sales in Beijing and Shanghai have risen in the past 2 days after the government enacted a mortgage relief measure.
• Australia’s household spending in Jul declined by 0.7%YoY, falling for the first time since Feb 2021, as consumers slow their spending in the presence of high inflation and interest rate.
• An Australian labor union is negotiating with Chevron to avert a strike at 2 LNG plants.
• The Department of Foreign Trade worries India’s plan to suspend sugar exports will lower world sugar supply and increase world sugar price and have a ripple effect on prices of goods containing sugar.
• TOP said the crude oil leak on Sep 3 is under control. Investigating the cause is underway and TOP says this will not affect its refinery run. | Strategy today | The SET is expected to be range-bound between 1,550-1,560 while waiting for the new government to announce its policies. Even though overall the seating of a new government will give a boost to sentiment, with funds returning to speculate, risks of a slowdown in the service and commerce sectors in China and deflation may still pressure the SET, limiting upside. Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: The SET will be range-bound as players wait for policies from the new government while external risks remain, limiting upside. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Stocks for medium-term investment: we selected eight stocks across four industries whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow both HoH and YoY - PTT, BCP, KCE, HANA, BDMS, BCH, AOT, and ERW.
2) Speculative stocks whose prices still lag and who are expected to benefit from new stimulus packages: for purchasing power (CPALL, CPAXT, HTC and CRC), infrastructure (GULF and KTB) and real estate (LH).
3) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from the return of fund inflows – KBANK, and CPN.
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | PTTEP: This company is least affected in the PTT group by government policy. In the short term it will benefit from higher oil price, raising 3Q23 profit QoQ.
AOT: We favor AOT due to high profit quality and a lagging stock price. 4QFY23 (Jul-Sep 2023) profit is expected to grow QoQ and YoY on more international passengers and the collection of the minimum guarantee since Apr 2023. | Today’s reports | Energy – Oil refineries facing higher freight cost
Tourism – Good environment in 2H23
AAV – Near-term positives offer trading opportunity. Upgrade to Neutral. |
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