กลุ่มชิ้นส่วนอิเล็กทรอนิกส์ – เริ่มเข้าสู่ช่วง High Season ของอุตสาหกรรม (Presentation)
กลุ่มปิโตรเคมี – ส่วนต่างราคาผลิตภัณฑ์ไม่มีทิศทางที่ชัดเจน WoW
กลุ่มท่องเที่ยว – ภาพรวม 2H66 เป็นบวก (Presentation)
MTC – ได้ประโยชน์จากนโยบายรัฐบาล Downside limited around 1,535-1,540 |
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Market today | Short-term technical indicators suggest the SET is oversold, and is seen to have limited downside at supports at 1,540 and 1,535, which can be used as a following point for recovery. Resistances are at 1,555 and 1,560. If it can break through these, the road is clear to recovery. | Today’s highlights | • Goldman Sachs see 15% probability the US economy will enter recession in the next 12 months; this is below its previous forecast of 20% due to lower inflation, which may lead the Fed to stop raising interest rate.
• Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary reduction in production of 1 MMbbl/day until the end of this year. Russia will also extend its export cut of 300,000 Mbbl/day until the end of this year.
• OFFO will propose two plans to cut energy prices to the new government: either cut the diesel excise tax to support the Oil Fund or use the Oil Fund mechanism to support oil prices with a loan of Bt55bn.
• BoT reports that economic growth and inflation are lower than expected and it plans to adjust its GDP forecast down and change its monetary policy from “smooth take-off” to “landing”.
• Thai CPI in Aug was 108.41 or +0.55%MoM and +0.88%YoY, mainly due to higher prices for energy products.
• The Excise Department plans to restructure the excise tax in order to reduce carbon emissions in order to reduce duties in the US and EU.
• The prime minister will make a policy statement to the parliament on Sep 11, with the cabinet to meet on Sep 12 to discuss measures to support energy costs and the digital wallet, which is expected to be ready on Feb 1, 2024.
• The Minister of Transport says setting the fare for the skytrain at Bt20/trip is expected within two years as it will take time to access a budget to accelerate investment to reduce logistics costs. | Strategy today | The SET is expected to be range-bound between 1,550-1,560 while waiting for the new government to announce its policies. Even though overall the seating of a new government will give a boost to sentiment, with funds returning to speculate, risks of a slowdown in the service and commerce sectors in China and deflation may still pressure the SET, limiting upside. Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: The SET will be range-bound as players wait for policies from the new government while external risks remain, limiting upside. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Stocks for medium-term investment: we selected eight stocks across four industries whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow both HoH and YoY - PTT, BCP, KCE, HANA, BDMS, BCH, AOT, and ERW.
2) Speculative stocks whose prices still lag and who are expected to benefit from new stimulus packages: for purchasing power (CPALL, CPAXT, HTC and CRC), infrastructure (GULF and KTB) and real estate (LH).
3) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from the return of fund inflows – KBANK, and CPN.
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | KCE: This is the most interesting in its sector, with clear signs of recovery in 2H23, continuing through 2024, backed by rising demand for EV-related products and low inventories. Valuation is at a discount to historical PE.
BCP: The company has solid long-term profit path with ESSO now on board as a driver for refinery business growth. 3Q23 profit is expected to improve both YoY and QoQ on higher GRM and oil price. | Today’s reports | Petrochemicals – WoW change in product spreads mixed
Tourism – Good environment in 2H23 (Presentation)
MTC – Benefits from government policies |
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