ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240607_T Negative indicators with domestic pressure
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Market today | The SET fell to a new low, prolonging the negative indicators on political concerns plus fund outflows. Next supports are at 1320 and 1310, while recovery is limited at resistance of 1340-1345. For a rebound signal, the index must break through resistance. | Today’s highlights | • The ECB voted to cut interest rates by 25bps, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%, the lending rate to 4.50% and the refinancing rate to 4.25%. This is the first rate cut in nearly 5 years, since September 2019.
• The number of US initial jobless claims last week increased by 8,000 to 229,000, higher than market expectations.
• The BOJ committee said Japan may not be able to achieve its 2% inflation target next year if consumption remains sluggish. They also emphasized uncertainty about the timing of another interest rate hike.
• The IEA expects global investment in clean energy technologies and infrastructure to surge to US$2tn this year. Total energy investment value is forecast to exceed US$3tn for the first time this year.
• Saudi Aramco lowered its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude oil to Asia in July, the first reduction since February, reflecting efforts to gain market share and slowing demand.
• Salesforce plans to open an AI research centre in London on June 18, demonstrating confidence in the UK's potential as a global technology hub.
• Thailand's Energy Policy and Planning Office will propose a new national Power Development Plan (PDP) 2024 to the Cabinet for consideration in September, aiming for an average electricity rate not exceeding Bt4/unit throughout the plan. | Strategy today | In the short term, the SET is still fragile and range-bound. Domestically, the market lacks a catalyst and is being pressured by politics, keeping it underperforming the region. However, there will be some support from the expectations of better profit in 2Q24 and positive external factors, such as May manufacturing PMI in China and US, which is expected to recover after several rounds of stimulus, and the ECB’s first cut in interest rate since September 2019. Our strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | The Thai capital market is still fragile as political risk remains in play. However, there is support lying in expectation of growth in 2Q24 profit and in external factors to be reported next week. We recommend “Selective Buy” with four main themes:
1) Stocks whose 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, while valuations are attractive and who are players in industries that have been able to outshine the market YTD – ICT: ADVANC; Tourism: MINT; and Food: TU, BTG and OSP.
2) Stocks expected to benefit from recovery in manufacturing, especially in China, whose profit has touched bottom but whose stock prices are yet to respond appropriately - KCE, SCGP and PTTGC.
3) For high-risk takers and those interested in small-caps, we select companies whose 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, whose valuation is attractive and who pay regular dividends – AMATA, AU, KLINIQ, TPAC and TNP.
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock – PTTEP. | Daily top picks | BDMS: 2024 core profit is expected to grow 13%, driven by 8% revenue growth which is compared to the company target of 10-12% in recognition of its pricing power and higher margin after adding services to care for more serious illnesses. 2Q24 core profit is expected to continue growing YoY, though it will slow QoQ on seasonal factors.
PTTEP: The company directly benefits from recovering oil price, coming back up after falling in tandem with oil price after the OPEC+ meeting. This is also a good hedge against risk from the conflict in the Middle East. Profit and balance sheet are strong. 2Q24 profit is expected to continue to grow as sales volume reaches a new high. | Today’s reports | BTS – Optimism vs. core challenges
TU – Entering a growth phase | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240607_E |
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