กลุ่มอาหาร – ยังอยู่ในภาวะซบเซา Range-bound at 1,540-1,550 |
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Market today | External factors are souring the mood as worries the Fed may keep interest rates high for a length period are again dominating. At home, the market is waiting for the new government’s policy speech on Sep 11-12. The SET is expected to move between 1,540-1550. As a whole, downside is limited at 1,540-1,545 and it may recover. Breaking through 1,555 would be a good sign. | Today’s highlights | • US initial jobless claims last week declined to a 7-month low, causing concern that the Fed may keep interest rates high for longer.
• China exports in Aug contracted for the fourth month, shrinking 8.8%YoY, as domestic demand for goods slowed down; imports in Aug also contracted 7.3%YoY.
• Japan 2Q23 GDP grew by 4.8%YoY, lower than the forecast of +6.0%YoY, as domestic demand and investment are still weak.
• JSCCIB says Thailand’s 2Q23 GDP was weak, growing just 1.8%YoY, well below the 3.1% YoY expected, leading to a drop in 2023 GDP forecast to 2.5-3.0% after adjusting the export forecast down from a contraction of 0-2% to 0.5-2%.
• The Ministry of Industry says the EV3.5 package will be moved forward to attract Tesla to invest in Thailand, promoting a four-region economic corridor and unlocking obstacles to exports of halal food. This is expected to complete in three months.
• Gia Corp., a company in South Korea, plans to establish an EV plant in Thailand with a capacity of 250,000 units per year. Sri Lanka has lifted a ban on imports of large vehicles, such as trucks, after its economy gained greater stability. | Strategy today | The SET is expected to be range-bound between 1,550-1,560 while waiting for the new government to announce its policies. Even though overall the seating of a new government will give a boost to sentiment, with funds returning to speculate, risks of a slowdown in the service and commerce sectors in China and deflation may still pressure the SET, limiting upside. Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: The SET will be range-bound as players wait for policies from the new government while external risks remain, limiting upside. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Stocks for medium-term investment: we selected eight stocks across four industries whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow both HoH and YoY - PTT, BCP, KCE, HANA, BDMS, BCH, AOT, and ERW.
2) Speculative stocks whose prices still lag and who are expected to benefit from new stimulus packages: for purchasing power (CPALL, CPAXT, HTC and CRC), infrastructure (GULF and KTB) and real estate (LH).
3) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from the return of fund inflows – KBANK, and CPN.
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | CPALL: 3Q23 profit is expected to grow YoY from steadily higher sales and margin in the CVS business and higher profit share from CPAXT after its financial cost was slashed by refinancing in April. Valuation is interesting and does not reflect strong profit momentum yet.
NYT: Sentiment will be positive as the new government plans to move forward on the EV3.5 package, which promotes investment, and Sri Lanka has lifted a ban on truck imports, giving Thai vehicle exports a good opportunity. Recommend buy at a price not higher than Bt4.10/share. | Today’s reports | Food – Still in the doldrums |
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