ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240312_T Be wary of selling at 1400 |
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Market today | The SET is expected to have limited upside with resistance at 1392 and a more significant one at 1400, which the index previously failed to test. Be cautious of selling at resistance, which may lead to a weakening in the index. Supports are at 1380 and 1370. If it can break through 1400, signs will be positive, with next resistance at 1410. | Today’s highlights | • US nonfarm payrolls grew by 275,000 in Feb, exceeding expectations. Unemployment rate rose to 3.9% after being unchanged at 3.7% for the last 3 months.
• The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering ending its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and will announce plans regarding the amount of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) purchases as an alternative to using YCC.
• China CPI in Feb increased by 0.7%YoY, rebounding from a 0.8% decline in Jan. However, the PPI in Feb decreased by 2.7%YoY after a 2.5% decline in Jan.
• The US is considering restricting several Chinese technology companies, while China is raising over US$2.7tn for a large chip fund to accelerate technology development, challenging the US's attempts to hinder China's progress.
• TSMC is planning to invest US$40bn to build two factories in Arizona and is negotiating financial incentives with the US government, expecting to receive more than US$5bn.
• The Energy Regulatory Commission is soliciting public opinion on electricity tariffs for the May-Aug 2024 period, with the maximum rate set at Bt5.43/unit and the minimum rate remaining at Bt4.18/unit. The Ministry of Energy says peak electricity usage reached 32,704 MW, with a continuous upward trend due to the early arrival of hot season and instructed EGAT to prevent power outages.
• The Public Debt Management Office reported the public debt level has increased to over 62% of GDP after the government borrowed funds to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the debt remains manageable and within fiscal discipline boundaries. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai stock market is expected to swing in a bound with a significant resistance at 1400 as there is no new domestic catalyst. External economic figures to be reported this week include Japan 4Q23 GDP, US retail sales (expected to be weak) and US CPI in Feb (expected to be higher than market estimates and pressure the hopes of an interest rate cut by the Fed). The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to swing in a bound without a new catalyst. We recommend “Selective Buy” in four main themes:
1) Speculative stocks with strong fundamentals being bought back to cover shorts and bringing fund inflow, plus the SET’s plans to introduce some measures to regulate short selling – AOT, KBANK, BBL and PTT.
2) Speculative stocks if US inflation in Feb comes in below expectations, which will brighten sentiment to stocks that benefit from a downward interest rate cycle – AP, CPALL, GULF and TIDLOR.
3) Small-cap speculative stocks with strong fundamentals and growth expected in 2024 plus stock price already bottomed – AU, ONEE, SECURE, KLINIQ and HTC.
4) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as now would be good timing since the SET has fallen significantly, risk is low and stocks are undervalued – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC, all of which are in SET100 and are leaders in their industries with ESG ratings of AAA and AA, valuation lower than 10-year historical average and strong operating results. | Daily top picks | SCGP: The drop in stock price is expected to already reflect the negatives. 1Q24 core profit is expected to improve, supported by recovery in packaging paper as Chinese packaging paper price will continue to rise in tandem with higher imports, thereby limiting downside risk.
TIDLOR: Profit is expected to recover strongly, with 2024 core profit forecast to grow 18.7%, supported by growing loans and fee revenue and lower credit cost as new NPLs are believed to have peaked in 2023, while in 2025 profit is expected to grow 25% from lower credit cost. | Today’s reports | CHG – Margin pressured by new hospitals | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240312_E |
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