ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240712_T Be wary of profit-taking
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Market today | A continue slowing in the US CPI in June will boost sentiment in the SET. However, the index has largely discounted the hopes the will Fed cut rates in September. Be cautious on profit-taking as well as the US market overnight. Resistances are between 1335-1340, supports between 1320-1325. | Today’s highlights | • US reported June headline CPI rose 3.0%YoY, below market expectations. June core CPI increased 3.3%YoY, also lower than anticipated. This raises investor hopes for a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the September meeting.
• IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to slow to about 1mn bbl/day in both 2024 and 2025 due to a contraction in China's consumption in 2Q24 amid economic challenges.
• The UTCC reported a decline in the June 2024 consumer confidence index for the four month to a 9-month low (since Oct 2023). Concerns include political instability, higher energy prices, global economic slowdown, and prolonged Middle East conflicts.
• The BoT met with major bank managers and Thai Bankers' Association representatives on July 10 to push for concrete measures to assist debtors through timely debt restructuring.
• Honda Motor plans to reduce car production capacity in Thailand by over 50%, from 270,000 units/year to 120,000 units/year, amid intense competition from Chinese rivals.
• The PM is scheduled to announce details of the digital wallet on July 24, including the budget and types of goods included. The Finance Ministry expects the project to boost GDP growth by 1.3-1.8% as initially projected, despite reduced funding. | Strategy today | In the short term, the SET is still fragile and range-bound due to prolonged political uncertainties. The market is expected to be supported by external factors as the Fed Chairman signalled to ease monetary policy, while US CPI slowed down to 3.0% in June as well as slowing job market figures. Our strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Thai capital market is seen to still be fragile and range-bound while waiting for some political clarity and a new catalyst. We recommend "Selective Buy" with four main themes:
1) Stocks expected to benefit from short covering after the SET implemented the uptick rule on July 1 and which also have SETESG ratings between AAA to A - HANA, TOP, BEM, MINT, OSP, BBL, SCGP and AOT.
2) Stocks expected to benefit from changes in conditions for the ThaiESG fund: raising deductions to up to Bt300,000 and reducing the holding period to five years - ADVANC, CPALL, BDMS, BBL, BEM and GULF.
3) Global plays whose profit is expected to grow and which benefit from global economic recovery over domestic plays, which face multiple uncertainties -SCGP, TU and MINT. (We recommend buy SCGP on price dips when pressured by weak Chinese economic figures.)
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock - PTTEP. | Daily top picks | CPALL: 2Q24 core profit is expected to grow 26%, outperforming its sector, backed by higher sales and margin and more contribution from CPAXT. 2H24 profit is expected to also grow YoY and again outperform the sector. CPALL is seen as a sector proxy, positioned to benefit from the digital wallet (upside to forecast).
GPSC: It has short-term positive from a decline in natural gas cost and Ft adjustment for Sep-Dec 2024 by the ERC. 2Q24 core profit is expected to improve YoY and QoQ on lower natural gas cost and increasing contribution from Avaada and CFXD. Recommend buy at not higher than Bt42.00/share. | Today’s reports | Residential Property – Presales up YoY, QoQ in 2Q24 | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240712_E |
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