SCGP มีหลายปัจจัยหนุนราคาหุ้นปรับขึ้น ได้แก่ 1Q67 คาดผลประกอบการฟื้นตัวจากการดำเนินงานในอินโดนีเซียดูดีขึ้น, มีโอกาสทำ M&P เพื่อให้ EBITDA margin มีเสถียรภาพมากขึ้น และคาด downside มีจำกัด หลังราคาหุ้นลดลงมาอยู่ที่ระดับ -2SD ของ PER mean และพบปริมาณขายชอร์ตลดลงอย่างมาก
XPG เป็นหนึ่งในตัวแทนที่ได้ประโยชน์จาก Crypto ที่ปรับขึ้น และทุกธุรกิจยังเติบโตได้ โดยรายได้ดอกเบี้ยคาดเติบโตจากธุรกิจปล่อยสินเชื่อ, รายได้จากค่าธรรมเนียมคาดโตเด่นจากธุรกิจ Digital Asset ทั้งเทรด Crypto และทำ ICO ขณะที่ AMC มีโอกาสได้มูลหนี้เพิ่ม คาดปี 2567 รายได้และกำไรสุทธิทำนิวไฮ |
ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240313_T Limited upside |
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Market today | Upside is seen to be limited for the SET with resistances at 1390 and 1400, with no catalyst and a risk of weakening after US inflation in Feb came in than expected, generating uncertainty about an interest rate cut in June. Supports are at 1370 and 1360. | Today’s highlights | • US CPI in Feb increased by 0.4%MoM and 3.2%YoY; core CPI rose by 0.4%MoM and 3.8%YoY, slightly higher than consensus. This raises concerns the Fed might not reduce interest rates in Jun.
• The price of gasoline in Russia increased 1.2% after drones and weapons from Ukraine attacked energy production facilities, including Lukoil refinery in Norilsk.
• The EIA forecasts US 2024 crude oil production will rise by 260,000 barrels per day to 13.19mn barrels per day, higher than the earlier forecast of a 170,000 barrels per day rise.
• Xiaomi is set to deliver its first electric car, the SU7, by the end of this month, marking its entry into the highly competitive electric vehicle industry.
• The Cabinet approved a 15% withholding tax on Investment Token profit, effective January 1, 2024. The SEC expects to raise ~Bt18.5bn through Investment Token offerings in 2024.
• The Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported tourist numbers between Mar 4-10 of 698,675, a 7%WoW decrease. However, the trend overall remains good, with China, Malaysia, Russia, India and South Korea the top five visitor-generating countries.
• The BOT recommended financial institutions implement Transition Products, which support customers in transitioning to green businesses. This initiative is planned for the second and third quarters of this year, with long-term plans outlined for 2025 to lead one industry's transition to green businesses. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai stock market is expected to be range-bound with a significant resistance at 1400 as there is no new domestic catalyst. External economic figures to be reported this week include Japan 4Q23 GDP, US retail sales (expected to be weak) and US CPI in Feb (expected to be higher than market estimates and pressure the hopes of an interest rate cut by the Fed). The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound without a new catalyst. We recommend “Selective Buy” in four main themes:
1) Speculative stocks with strong fundamentals being bought back to cover shorts and bringing fund inflow, plus the SET’s plans to introduce some measures to regulate short selling – AOT, KBANK, BBL and PTT.
2) Small-cap speculative stocks with strong fundamentals and growth expected in 2024 plus stock price already bottomed – AU, ONEE, SECURE, KLINIQ and HTC.
3) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as now would be good timing since the SET has fallen significantly, risk is low and stocks are undervalued – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC, all of which are in SET100 and are leaders in their industries with ESG ratings of AAA and AA, valuation lower than 10-year historical average and strong operating results. | Daily top picks | SCGP: There are multiple catalysts supporting stock price: 1Q24 is expected to recover from improved operations in Indonesia, M&Ps to give more stable EBITDA margin and limited downside after price has fallen to -2S.D. of PER and short sell volume is down significantly.
XPG: One company benefiting from the rising crypto market, with all businesses growing. Interest revenue will be grown via loans while fee income is expected to grow outstandingly from the digital asset business, such as crypto trading, and ICO, while the AMC business is poised to have more loans. All told, the company’s 2024 revenue and net profit are expected to reach new highs. | Today’s reports | Petrochemicals – Naphtha up to 6-month high
SCGP (High conviction) – Clear signs of recovery | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240313_E |
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