กลุ่มพาณิชย์ – ได้ประโยชน์จากมาตรการกระตุ้นศก.ที่จะออกมาในปี 2567
BAM – 3Q66: กำไรจาก NPL และ NPA ลดลง
CBG – 3Q66: กำไรสุทธิใกล้เคียงคาด
CPALL – 3Q66: ดีเกินคาดเพราะกำไร XF; กำไรปกติตามคาด
EPG – 2QFY67: ผลประกอบการแข็งแกร่งจากส่วนแบ่งกำไร
LH – 3Q66: กำไรลดลงแรง
MTC – คาด credit cost ทำจุดสูงสุด และ NPL เกิดใหม่ลดลง
OR – 3Q66: กำไรสินค้าคงเหลือหนุนกำไรเพิ่มขึ้น
Stock Note – AU Signals still weak |
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Market today | The SET tried to recover, but faced selling pressure, weakening signals. The upper bound is limited at resistances of 1,400 and 1,406, and the index has to break through for any recovery. Supports are at 1,380 and 1,370. A fall below supports is a negative signal and puts the index at risk to make a new low. | Today’s highlights | • The Prime Minister expects to start the digital wallet project of Bt10,000 per person in May 2024. It is also initiating an E-refund program for those who do not receive digital wallet funds, in which taxpayers can take a deduction off their taxes for purchases of goods and services of up to Bt50,000, starting in Jan 2024. This is viewed as good for the commerce sector in 2024.
• The Ministry of Commerce, after inspection, found sugar factories have sufficient production to meet domestic distribution until the next production season. Sugar is circulating normally in the market, and there is no need for the public to hoard sugar.
• The private sector is preparing for high labour costs. The beverage industry is adjusting production plans and managing costs, while the retail sector expects it will be able to handle the situation well. Close attention is being paid to the economic situation.
• The NBTC board voted 4 to 1 to conditionally allow ADVANC to merge with 3BB. The conditions include maintaining the lowest package price for five years before the merger and the possibility of suspension or additional adjustments in case of complaints post-merger.
• Moody’s downgraded US government credit outlook from stable to negative, citing expectations of a significant budget deficit and a substantial reduction in debt repayment capacity. However, the long-term debt and senior unsecured debt ratings of the government are maintained at the Aaa level.
• Over 60 countries, led by the EU, USA, and UAE, support a deal to triple renewable energy capacity this decade and phase out coal use.
• The US consumer confidence index in Nov declined to its lowest level in four months, falling below expectations. | Strategy today | Although the Thai capital market is facing high volatility, in the short term the SET is expected to recover as economic figures and world earnings results are not as bad as feared, while domestically there is the possibility an LTF will be set up and extend SSF. However, SET upside is seen to be limited from profit-taking after the end of 3Q23 earnings announcements. Our strategy is selective buy. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: Although the Thai stock market is still facing high volatility, in the short term the SET may recover with limited upside. We recommend “selective buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Big-cap stocks expected to recover in line with the market with low volatility; we pick undervalued stocks whose prices have entered oversold territory and valuations are not stretched (PER and PBV 2023F are below 5-year average.) – BDMS, BEM, BBL GULF and SCGP.
2) Earnings plays whose 3Q23 earnings will be announced this week, with 4Q23 earnings expected to grow YoY to the year’s best quarter – ERW, AOT, CENTEL, ZEN and CRC.
In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY), Food & Agriculture (CPF GFPT and GFPT) and Beverages (CBG has high sugar cost). | Daily top picks | CPALL: 3Q23 core profit was in line, and 4Q23 profit is expected to grow YoY from higher sales volume and margin from CVS business and higher profit share from CPAXT. It also has the greatest number of branches, positioning it to benefit most from stimulus packages, E-refund and digital wallet, to take effect in 2024.
AOT: The company benefits from entering tourism high season as more tourists bring more profit (+YoY, +QoQ) in 4QFY23-1QFY24. The stock has already fallen to reflect any negatives and YTD it lags other tourism stocks. | Today’s reports | Commerce – To gain on upcoming stimulus in 2024F
BAM – 3Q23: Smaller gain on NPLs and NPAs
CBG – 3Q23: Net profit in line
CPALL – 3Q23: Beat on FX gain; core profit in line
EPG – 2QFY24: Strong earnings from equity income
LH – 3Q23: Earnings plunge
MTC – Peaking credit cost, easing NPL inflow
OR – 3Q23: Inventory gain boosts profit |
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