กลุ่มพลังงาน – ได้รับผลกระทบจากมาตรการลดราคาพลังงานของรัฐบาล
AOT (High Conviction) – จำนวนผู้โดยสารเพิ่มขึ้น = กำไรแข็งแกร่งขึ้น Expected to recover at 1,530 |
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Market today | Although the mood was soured by the higher-than-expected US CPI that heightens worries about the Fed’s interest rate direction, in terms of technical indicators, follow at 1,530 to expect a recovery. Resistance is at between 1,540-1,545, and a break up would be a good sign. A fall below 1,530 would be negative, with next support at 1,522. | Today’s highlights | • The cabinet approved to cut the diesel tax and keep price below Bt30/litre, starting on Sep 20. The cut in diesel tax, which is at Bt5/litre, will not affect companies, but if there is an effort to cut marketing margin, OR and BCP will be the first affected.
• The cabinet approved a cut in electricity tariff from Bt4.45/kWh to Bt4.10/kWh, starting in September to the end of 2023. This will have a negative impact on SPP operators BGRIM and GPSC, whose sales proportion to industrial users is more than 25%. Impact on GULF is limited as it has a high proportion of IPP revenue.
• The cabinet approved a three-year loan moratorium for the agriculture sector and small businesses. Most of impact will be on government banks rather than commercial banks, while the finance sector is expected to benefit in terms of reduced quality asset risk, especially MTC, most of whose customers are agricultural. Loan growth is expected to slow slightly.
• The cabinet approved to give visa-free entry to tourists from China and Kazakhstan starting on Sep 25, 2023 and running until Feb 29, 2024. This will support tourism and will have greater effect than simply exempting visa fees. Top picks are ERW and AOT.
• ThaiBMA is watching high-yield bonds that will mature in less than 3 months, suggests preparing a backup plan, warning investors of the risk of default and researching for more information.
• US CPI in Aug had the highest growth in the past 14 months due to a rise in gasoline price but had the lowest YoY growth in 2 years, which may lead the Fed to keep interest rate flat at its meeting next week.
• EIA reported an increase in US crude oil inventory of 4MB last week, opposite from the expected drop of 2MB.
• American Airlines cut its 3Q23 forecast on a rise in fuel cost and expenses. | Strategy today | The investment climate in the Thai capital market is seen to have limited downside and be range-bound at 1,540-1,600, supported by positive sentiment from the new government’s policy speech on Sep 11-12, stable oil price at a high level, which benefits Energy and the launch of iPhone 15. Economic issues to follow this week are US CPI (expected to be stable) and the ECB meeting (interest rate expected to be flat). Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: The SET will be range-bound and has limited downside as there is positive sentiment from the new government’s policy announcement. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Stocks for medium-term investment: we selected eight stocks across four industries whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow both HoH and YoY - PTT, BCP, KCE, HANA, BDMS, BCH, AOT, and ERW.
2) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from policies deemed urgent by the new government with a focus on stimulating purchasing power and tourism – CPALL, CPAXT, HTC and OSP.
3) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from the iPhone 15 launch – COM7 and SYNEX
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | AOT: 4QFY23-1QFY24 profit is expected to grow as Thailand enters its high tourism season, which will be aided by the government’s measures to boost tourism, while the stock price has not risen much and is laggard compared to others in the tourism sector.
KCE: The stock is the most interesting in the sector as there is a clear sign of recovery in 2H23 continuing into 2024 from recovery of demand for EV-related products and low inventory levels, while valuation is still discounted to historical PE. | Today’s reports | Energy – Haunted by government energy price cut
AOT – Stronger traffic volume = stronger earnings |
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