CRC (High Conviction) – กลับสู่ทิศทางขาขึ้นหลังจากทำจุดต่ำสุดใน 3Q66
AAV – 3Q66: ขาดทุนเพราะถูกฉุดรั้งโดยขาดทุน FX และต้นทุนน้ำมันเครื่องบิน
CPF – 3Q66: ขาดทุนปกติตามคาด
IVL – 3Q66: กำไรอ่อนแอต่อเนื่อง
SAWAD – 3Q66: กำไรสูงกว่าคาดเล็กน้อยเพราะ ECL
SPALI – 3Q66: กำไรต่ำกว่าคาดเล็กน้อย
THRE – 3Q66: กำไรตามคาด; ได้เวลาช้อนซื้อ
TLI – 3Q66: กำไรต่ำกว่าคาดจาก ECL และสำรองที่สูงขึ้น
TQM – 3Q66: รายได้ค่าธรรมเนียมอ่อนแอลง; มาร์จิ้นดีขึ้น
ZEN – 3Q66: กำไรต่ำกว่าคาด Recovering, low US CPI supports |
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Market today | The SET is expected to recover, aided by lower US CPI than expected, which supports the ending of the Fed’s upward interest rate cycle. US bond yield declined and the US dollar depreciated. Resistances are at 1,398 and 1,406, while supports are at 1,378 and 1,370. | Today’s highlights | • The Treasury Department has approved the establishment of the TESG fund, which invests in stocks and debt instruments that meet ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria in an effort to stimulate long-term investment in the securities market. The fund allows for a tax deduction of up to Bt100,000 per year, with investment opportunities starting on Dec 1. It is expected to draw in capital exceeding Bt10bn. This will be sent to the cabinet next week for approval.
• The Cabinet has approved a Bt2/kg increase in the factory gate price of sugar as a temporary solution to assist farmers. An additional Bt2 increase for an environmental care fund is still pending approval. This immediate price hike is expected to raise production costs for beverage companies and pressure gross margin if retail prices cannot be adjusted in line with the increase. We suggest adopting a wait-and-see approach, focusing on the recovery of demand and volume towards the end of the year and clarity on costs in the upcoming year.
• The Prime Minister said that Tesla has expressed interest in investing in Thailand. The company is preparing to visit proposed factory locations after Thai private entities offered three potential sites. A decision is anticipated in the first quarter of 2027, aligning with support for the 'land bridge' project, which aims to position Thailand as a key economic, trade, and transportation hub in the region.
• IEA has revised its oil demand forecast for this year to 2.4 mn bbl/day, up from the previous estimate of 2.3 mn bbl/day. In 2027, the forecast has been increased to 930,000 bbl/day, up from the initial projection of 880,000 bbl/day.
• US CPI for Oct increased by 3.2% YoY, and core CPI, excluding volatile items, rose by 4.0% YoY, both lower than market expectations. This supports market anticipation of an end to the Fed interest rate hike cycle and the potential commencement of a monetary policy easing phase. | Strategy today | Although the Thai capital market is facing high volatility, in the short term the SET is expected to recover as economic figures and world earnings results are not as bad as feared, while domestically there is the possibility an LTF will be set up and extend SSF. However, SET upside is seen to be limited from profit-taking after the end of 3Q23 earnings announcements. Our strategy is selective buy. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: Although the Thai stock market is still facing high volatility, in the short term the SET may recover, though upside is limited. We recommend “selective buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Big-cap stocks expected to recover in line with the market with low volatility; we pick undervalued stocks whose prices have entered oversold territory and valuations are not stretched (PER and PBV 2023F are below 5-year average.) – BDMS, BEM, BBL GULF and SCGP.
2) Earnings plays whose 3Q23 earnings will be announced this week, with 4Q23 expected to grow YoY to the year’s best quarter – ERW, AOT, CENTEL, ZEN and CRC.
The Ministry of Finance has approved the establishment of a TESG fund investing in stocks and bonds with a focus on ESG to stimulate long-term investment in the stock market. The fund offers a tax deduction of up to Bt100,000 per year with an 8-year holding period, which begins this December. It is expected to attract at least Bt10bn in capital. Selected stocks within the SETESG index that are of interest include those with an ESG Rating of “AAA” or “AA” and have experienced a significant YTD price drop. Five interesting stocks identified as potential investment targets - TOP, CRC, SCGP, GULF, and ZEN.
In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY), Food & Agriculture (CPF GFPT and GFPT) and Beverages (CBG has high sugar cost). | Daily top picks | GULF: The stock is included in the SETESG index with an “AA” SET ESG rating. We continue to see strong profit momentum. 4Q23 profit is expected to grow, backed by an IPP unit (GPD) that came on line in Oct and increasing contribution from Jackson Generation.
CRC: Profit has passed bottom, and 4Q23 is expected to be the best quarter, with profit expected to grow QoQ and YoY. CRC is also poised to benefit most from the E-refund project expected to begin in Jan 2024. The stock has also been put in the SETESG Index, making it an expected investment target, with “AAA” rating. | Today’s reports | CRC (High conviction) – Heading back up after bottom in 3Q23
AAV – 3Q23: In the red from FX loss and jet fuel cost
CPF – 3Q23: Core loss, in line with estimates
IVL – 3Q23: Weak profit, slash 2023F
SAWAD – 3Q23: Slight beat on ECL
SPALI – 3Q23: Slightly below estimates
THRE – 3Q23: In line; bottom fishing time
TLI – 3Q23: Miss on higher ECL and reserve
TQM – 3Q23: Weaker fee income, improving margin
ZEN – 3Q23: Below estimates |
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