ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240318_T Weaken before the FOMC meeting |
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Market today | The SET is expected to face selling to avoid risk before the FOMC meeting on March 19-20 due to uncertainty of the timing of an interest rate cut, while technical indicators show sign of weakening since last week. Supports are at 1380 and 1370, while resistance is at 1390 and 1400. | Today’s highlights | • Yesterday, multiple Ukrainian drones attacked the Slavyansk oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region, resulting in fires and casualties.
• Copper futures increased by 2%DoD on concerns about tight supply after major Chinese copper smelters agreed to cut production capacity and delay new copper projects.
• Wheat futures continue to decline due to concerns about delayed demand, with US exporters canceling over 500,000 tons in sales to China, and Chinese importers canceling or delaying over 1 million tons in purchases from Australia.
• China is considering market stabilization measures to boost investor confidence, including closer scrutiny of IPO stock offerings, crackdowns on securities fraud and support for companies to increase dividend payments and share buybacks.
• Thailand's BOI expects to support the EV sector for long-term investment, citing increasing demand for EVs in Thailand and opportunities for expansion despite price wars. The focus is on developing the EV supply chain in Thailand.
• The TAT announced visa-free entry to boost Chinese tourist arrivals and plans to continue promotions. TAT aims to increase Japanese tourists to Thailand, targeting 1.26mn in 2024. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai capital market is expected to continue recovering and stand above 1400, supported by hopes for disbursement of the government budget and by hopes the FOMC meeting keeps interest rate unchanged and signals a cut in the second half of the year. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | In the short term the SET is expected to continue recovering and stand above 1400 on hopes the Fed will signal an interest rate cut in June. We recommend “Selective Buy” in four main themes:
1) Speculative stocks: stocks whose price is lagging and likely to have good dividends, a higher dividend payout ratio and trading at a higher PER – Banking (BBL and KBANK), Property Development (AP) and Telecommunication (ADVANC).
2) Speculative stocks on a technical basis after prices have broken a downtrend and NVDR has turned to a net buy in March – IVL, GULF and BDMS.
3) Speculative stocks expected to gain from manufacturing recovery (especially China), and whose operating results have passed the bottom. These are also our 2Q24 Top Picks – AOT, GFPT, GULF, KCE and SCGP.
4) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as the stock prices are undervalued, and operating results are strong – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC. | Daily top picks | BCP: The company benefits from higher oil price. 1Q24 profit is expected to be supported by strong GRM and a more stable oil price. 2024 core profit is expected to grow 12% on contribution from BSRC and a better E&P business. Valuation is not expensive at 2024F PER of < 5x.
CPALL: 1Q24TD same-store sales growth is highest in the sector, lifting 1Q24 profit YoY. 2024 profit is expected to grow 17.4% to Bt21bn on better sales and margin at the CVS business and higher contribution from CPAXT, which does not include any upside from new stimulus. | Today’s reports | BCH – Strong growth in 2024
CPALL – Solid CVS growth in 1Q24TD | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240318_E |
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